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Latest Market Anatomy

Market Anatomy, Thursday, October 1, 2026

Published Oct 1, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Today's move, what drove it, and what the available information cannot explain.

7,666.45 +0.19%1d

Capitalisation weighted, so a move in the largest companies moves it more than a move in the smallest.

the last 40 stored closes, scaled to their own range
26,871.60 +0.04%1d

Every Nasdaq listing, weighted by capitalisation and heavy in technology.

50,926.56 +0.04%1d

Thirty names weighted by price rather than by capitalisation, so it can disagree with the S&P for arithmetic reasons alone.

2,806.63 +0.35%1d

Small capitalisation names. Read against the S&P, it is the size half of how broad a day was.

209.00 +0.47%1d

The same five hundred companies weighted equally, so the largest names count no more than the smallest. Read against the cap-weighted index, the gap is how much of the day belonged to the biggest companies.

Cap weight against equal weight-0.28pp

The equal-weighted index outran the cap-weighted one, so the session was broader than the headline index makes it look.

Market participation

38%

3 of 8 tracked indices above their 50-day average

Counted over ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI, ^RUT, ^FTSE, ^N225, ^GDAXI, 000001.SS. This is a reading across whole market indices, not a count of the companies inside any one of them.

Sentiment

Fear and Greed
28 -12.50%1d

CNN's own index, stored at the close. Context for whether sentiment confirms the tape or contradicts it.

16.39 +0.31%1d

Expected thirty day volatility from S&P 500 options. Rising with the index is the contradiction worth seeing.

Today's key movers

+18.80%
MAT 15.04
CATALYST FOUND

CEO replacement announced the prior day, consistent with the large single-day jump in shares.

News event dated 2026-09-30, CNBC Top News: Mattel replaces CEO Kreiz with Lynch

Moved 18.8%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

+15.78%
ACN 212.3
CATALYST FOUND

Earnings reported to have surged on cloud and AI demand, consistent with the sharp share price gain.

News event dated 2026-09-30, CNBC Top News: Accenture earnings surge on cloud, AI demand

Moved 15.8%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

-3.59%
CACC 511.95
NARRATIVE IDENTIFIED

Settlement with states and flagged financial risks noted in the prior week, aligning with the decline.

News event dated 2026-09-24, Yahoo Finance: Credit Acceptance settles with states; financial risks assessed

Moved 3.6%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

+3.35%
BA 192.28
NO CLEAR CATALYST

The evidence read for this company over the 7 days before the session was its own SEC filings, its stored corporate actions, the headline feed collected for its ticker and the clustered news events this system collects every two hours across every category. Rows naming this company were read inside that window and none of them was resolved to this session's move.

Moved 3.3%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

+3.03%
MU 1,097.39
CATALYST FOUND

Blowout earnings on AI memory demand reported the prior day, consistent with the share price gain.

News event dated 2026-09-30, CNBC Top News: Micron posts blowout earnings on AI memory demand

Moved 3.0%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

+3.01%
TWLO 301.27
NO CLEAR CATALYST

The evidence read for this company over the 7 days before the session was its own SEC filings, its stored corporate actions, the headline feed collected for its ticker and the clustered news events this system collects every two hours across every category. None of them holds a row for this company inside that window.

Moved 3.0%, at or above the 3% floor for this strip

Open questions

  • What is driving Boeing?+3.35%
    The evidence read for this company over the 7 days before the session was its own SEC filings, its stored corporate actions, the headline feed collected for its ticker and the clustered news events this system collects every two hours across every category. Rows naming this company were read inside that window and none of them was resolved to this session's move.
  • What is driving Twilio?+3.01%
    The evidence read for this company over the 7 days before the session was its own SEC filings, its stored corporate actions, the headline feed collected for its ticker and the clustered news events this system collects every two hours across every category. None of them holds a row for this company inside that window.

Built in code from the movers whose evidence did not resolve, so no written summary can shorten this list.

Key takeaways

  1. 1

    Participation rose to 3 of 8 tracked indices above their 50-day average from 2 of 8 last session, even as the S&P 500 move stayed modest at 0.19%.

  2. 2

    Sector performance split widely, with Energy up 1.95% against Health Care down 1.32%, a wider range than the prior session's Technology to Staples spread of 2.17 points.

  3. 3

    The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones both rose 0.04% while the Russell 2000 rose 0.35%, a narrower spread across indices than the prior session's 1.10 point divergence.

  4. 4

    Fear and Greed fell 12.50% to 28 while the VIX rose only 0.31%, showing sentiment deteriorating faster than measured volatility would suggest.

Sector spread

  • +1.95%
  • +1.05%
  • +0.99%
  • +0.61%
  • +0.11%
  • -0.03%
  • -0.33%
  • -0.33%
  • -0.56%
  • -0.93%
  • -1.32%

One session, from the stored closes of the eleven sector ETFs. Each bar is scaled against the widest move of the day, so the shape is the spread and not an absolute size.