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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Published Sep 22, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

ENERGY RECONVERGES

3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being WTI at -1.24%. Reconverging is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 99.25USD/bbl-1.09% 1d-8.7% 1w+7.7% 1m
  • 94.59USD/bbl-1.24% 1d-10.6% 1w+11.3% 1m
  • 3.487USD/gal+0.51% 1d+0.6% 1w+6.6% 1m
Why it may be moving

US refinery utilisation -2.8ppUS refinery utilisation is 94.0% as of 2026-09-18, -2.8pp against 96.8% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.

What the relationship says

Reconverging. Brent against WTI: the difference that had opened between them is closing again, -1.09% against -1.24% today, with the spread back inside its own recent range after sitting outside it in the last 5 sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one.

Reconverging. Crude against gasoline: the difference that had opened between them is closing again, -1.24% against +0.51% today, with the spread back inside its own recent range after sitting outside it in the last 5 sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

In our news record

2026-09-22Oil prices under pressure from Middle East tensions; BofA warns of $150 spike if conflict spreadsMarketWatch Top Stories

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

Crude and gasoline spread narrowing suggests refining margin normalization rather than a supply disruption; Brent and WTI moving together points to a global rather than US-specific driver.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

GRAINS SELLOFF

3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soy oil at -1.39%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 536.75cents/bu-1.15% 1d+0.2% 1w+9.2% 1m
  • 717.25cents/bu-1.31% 1d-1.5% 1w+5.2% 1m
  • 67.37cents/lb-1.39% 1d-3.6% 1w+0.4% 1m
Why it may be moving

US Corn Belt rainfall 93th percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 93th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-09-22. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Corn Belt soil moisture is unusually high for late season, favoring corn and soybean yield development this year.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Corn against wheat: -1.15% against -1.31% today, and the spread between them sits 2.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.

Corn outpacing soybeans and wheat by a statistically wide margin signals a shift in relative planting economics and feed substitution rather than uniform grain strength.

METALS RALLY

2 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Platinum at +1.84%.

  • 16.62USD+1.84% 1d+3.4% 1w-2.2% 1m
  • 6.760USD/lb+1.09% 1d+6.1% 1w+2.4% 1m
  • 4,376.40USD/oz-0.17% 1d+1.0% 1w-5.7% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

In our news record

2026-09-22Gold prices hold steady as Chinese gold imports hit recordYahoo Finance

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Coffee at -1.48%.

  • 272.30cents/lb-1.48% 1d-9.1% 1w-27.9% 1m
  • 5,402USD/t+0.95% 1d-8.4% 1w-7.2% 1m
  • 17.59cents/lb+0.63% 1d-2.0% 1w-0.3% 1m
Why it may be moving

Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.

LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +1.44%.

  • 79.275cents/lb+1.44% 1d+0.3% 1w-2.3% 1m
  • 218.775cents/lb-0.98% 1d-0.9% 1w-0.6% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

Key insights

  1. 1

    Energy and grains moved in opposite directions with unusual force, crude falling over four percent while corn rose nearly three percent, a divergence not obviously linked by any shared driver.

  2. 2

    Food pressure theme shows broad grain and livestock strength alongside cheaper transport fuel costs, an unusual combination given fuel typically feeds into food production costs.

  3. 3

    Wet Corn Belt conditions contrast sharply with dry Argentine Pampas conditions, opposite hemispheres diverging on moisture just as their planting seasons approach.

The complex

32.44-0.43% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index100.53+0.10%
  • 10Y Treasury4.97%+0.10%
  • Fear and Greed36+5.88%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Industrial demand2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Platinum at +1.84%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Platinum
  • Transportation fuel cost2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Diesel at +1.08%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from Gasoline, Diesel

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain134-1.47%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-16, measured against 2026-09-09. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain263.29+5.13%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-16, measured against 2026-09-09. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel195.14+0.66%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-16, measured against 2026-09-09. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel179.33+0.66%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-16, measured against 2026-09-09. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.