What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
LIVESTOCK RALLY
2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +12.50%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs+12.50%79.875 cents/lb
Cattle+0.67%220.925 cents/lb
Meat processing
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs+12.50%79.875 cents/lb
Cattle+0.67%220.925 cents/lb
Meat processing
79.875cents/lb+12.50% 1d+13.4% 1w+9.9% 1m
220.925cents/lb+0.67% 1d+0.8% 1w+0.1% 1m
Why it may be moving
No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
ENERGY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Gasoline at +11.32%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Refinery utilisation-2.8pp
Gasoline+11.32%3.587 USD/gal
Brent+8.04%103.08 USD/bbl
Nat gas-3.02%3.023 USD/MMBtu
Diesel
Fertilizer
->Physical flow
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Refinery utilisation-2.8pp
Gasoline+11.32%3.587 USD/gal
Brent+8.04%103.08 USD/bbl
Nat gas-3.02%3.023 USD/MMBtu
Diesel
Fertilizer
->Physical flow
3.587USD/gal+11.32% 1d+11.4% 1w+18.7% 1m
103.08USD/bbl+8.04% 1d+1.3% 1w+16.3% 1m
3.023USD/MMBtu-3.02% 1d-0.5% 1w+3.4% 1m
Why it may be moving
US refinery utilisation-2.8ppUS refinery utilisation is 94.0% as of 2026-09-18, -2.8pp against 96.8% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Brent and WTI spreads narrowing back into normal range signal a fading of the earlier global versus US supply gap.
GRAINS SELLOFF
3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Corn at -1.44%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Nothing unusual upstreamEvery upstream reading is inside its own threshold.
Corn-1.44%529.00 cents/bu
Wheat-1.22%708.50 cents/bu
Soy oil-0.99%67.25 cents/lb
Animal feed
Corn syrup
<- =/= ->Divergence
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Nothing unusual upstreamEvery upstream reading is inside its own threshold.
Corn-1.44%529.00 cents/bu
Wheat-1.22%708.50 cents/bu
Soy oil-0.99%67.25 cents/lb
Animal feed
Corn syrup
<- =/= ->Divergence
529.00cents/bu-1.44% 1d-1.0% 1w+7.6% 1m
708.50cents/bu-1.22% 1d-3.0% 1w+3.9% 1m
67.25cents/lb-0.99% 1d-3.6% 1w-0.6% 1m
What the relationship says
<- =/= ->Divergence.Corn against wheat: -1.44% against -1.22% today, and the spread between them sits 2.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.
Why it may be moving
Nothing unusual upstream.
Corn and wheat spread stretched to 2.2 standard deviations from average, a divergence wide enough to shift feed ration substitution economics.
METALS SELLOFF
3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Platinum at -4.39%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Priced without a published countNo public count stands behind these metals.
Platinum-4.39%15.89 USD
Palladium-3.37%22.95 USD
Silver-3.23%64.382 USD/oz
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Priced without a published countNo public count stands behind these metals.
Platinum-4.39%15.89 USD
Palladium-3.37%22.95 USD
Silver-3.23%64.382 USD/oz
15.89USD-4.39% 1d+0.4% 1w-6.5% 1m
22.95USD-3.37% 1d-0.7% 1w-6.8% 1m
64.382USD/oz-3.23% 1d-0.8% 1w-6.9% 1m
Why it may be moving
No public body publishes a regular inventory or production count for these metals, so this market is priced against holdings and demand rather than against a published quantity.
Platinum's sharp drop against copper's gain shows industrial metals splitting rather than moving as one growth signal.
SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Sugar at -4.36%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Nothing unusual upstreamEvery upstream reading is inside its own threshold.
Sugar-4.36%17.75 cents/lb
Cocoa+2.33%5,528 USD/t
Coffee+1.32%275.90 cents/lb
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Nothing unusual upstreamEvery upstream reading is inside its own threshold.
Sugar-4.36%17.75 cents/lb
Cocoa+2.33%5,528 USD/t
Coffee+1.32%275.90 cents/lb
17.75cents/lb-4.36% 1d-6.4% 1w-4.7% 1m
5,528USD/t+2.33% 1d-7.5% 1w-5.0% 1m
275.90cents/lb+1.32% 1d-6.7% 1w-27.0% 1m
Why it may be moving
Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.
Key insights
1
Industrial demand names fell broadly while copper alone rose, a reminder that copper strength does not by itself confirm improving manufacturing activity.
2
Diesel and gasoline both firmed even as crude benchmarks fell, pointing to a widening refining margin rather than a supply-driven move.
3
Argentine dryness now sits at the extreme dry end of its historical range for this window, a physical risk to southern hemisphere planting distinct from the day's price moves.
The complex
32.88+1.36% 1d
A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.
Market context
US Dollar Index101.09+0.56%
10Y Treasury5.11%+2.94%
Fear and Greed35-2.78%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Across the complexes
Industrial demand3 of the 4 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Platinum at -4.39%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Platinum, Palladium
Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -3.23%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Gasoline at +11.32%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel
Reading the diagrams
->Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
<- =/= ->DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
-> <-ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
-> ->ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
<->SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
\ /Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.
What it costs to move it
RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Shuttle rail, grain1340.00%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
Illinois River barge, grain274.3+4.18%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel194.51-0.32%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.77-1.99%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Refused today
Brent against WTI: the spread between these two moved 5.9 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.
Crude against gasoline: the spread between these two moved 8.9 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.
Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 11.1 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.