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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Thursday, September 24, 2026

Published Sep 24, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +12.62%.

  • 79.200cents/lb+12.62% 1d+27.3% 1w+24.8% 1m
  • 219.075cents/lb-1.47% 1d+0.6% 1w-0.5% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

Hogs surged far more than cattle, a sharp divergence within the livestock complex, though no upstream reading was measured to explain the gap.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

ENERGY RALLY

3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Gasoline at +6.71%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 106.60USD/bbl+3.41% 1d+5.8% 1w+25.2% 1m
  • 94.61USD/bbl+5.37% 1d-0.4% 1w+23.2% 1m
  • 3.565USD/gal+6.71% 1d+18.1% 1w+27.4% 1m
Why it may be moving

US refinery utilisation -2.8ppUS refinery utilisation is 94.0% as of 2026-09-18, -2.8pp against 96.8% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.Less crude is being run through refineries, a physical bottleneck that can widen the gap between crude and fuel prices.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Brent against WTI: +3.41% against +5.37% today, and the spread between them sits 2.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one.

Confirming. Crude against gasoline: +5.37% against +6.71%, in the same direction, with the spread inside its own recent range. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

Gasoline outran both crude and natural gas as refinery utilisation fell, pointing to a widening gap between crude and refined product pricing.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Sugar at -6.49%.

  • 17.58cents/lb-6.49% 1d-9.7% 1w-8.9% 1m
  • 5,590USD/t+1.12% 1d-3.2% 1w-2.9% 1m
  • 79.51cents/lb+0.76% 1d+1.4% 1w-8.7% 1m
Why it may be moving

US upland cotton rated good or excellent -8.0ppUS upland cotton rated good or excellent is 34% for the week ending 2026-09-20, -8.0pp against USDA's own published five-year average of 42% for the same week. USDA's weekly survey of the share of the upland crop rated good or excellent, against USDA's own published five-year average for the same week. Upland is about 95 percent of the US crop, and the survey stops out of season rather than continuing at a stale reading.

Sugar fell sharply against firmer cocoa and coffee, but every upstream reading here came back ordinary today.

GRAINS SELLOFF

2 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soy oil at -1.30%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 527.50cents/bu-0.28% 1d-0.6% 1w+5.4% 1m
  • 707.00cents/bu-0.21% 1d-2.8% 1w+3.1% 1m
  • 66.93cents/lb-1.30% 1d-4.1% 1w-2.5% 1m
What the relationship says

Divergence. Corn against wheat: -0.28% against -0.21% today, and the spread between them sits 1.9 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.

Why it may be moving

Nothing unusual upstream.

Corn led grains lower and its spread against wheat is now stretched, a feed substitution signal sharpened by extreme Pampas dryness.

METALS SELLOFF

3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at -2.32%.

  • 63.457USD/oz-2.32% 1d-4.8% 1w-9.2% 1m
  • 6.719USD/lb-0.52% 1d-0.3% 1w-2.1% 1m
  • 4,298.00USD/oz-0.47% 1d-2.3% 1w-7.3% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

In our news record

2026-09-24Vista Gold agrees to be acquired; Mt Todd funding outlook uncertainYahoo Finance

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

Silver led metals lower with gold and copper falling in the same direction, a growth and haven reading moving together rather than splitting apart.

Key insights

  1. 1

    Gasoline jumped over eleven percent while refinery utilisation fell nearly three points, consistent with a physical squeeze between crude supply and refined fuel output.

  2. 2

    Corn's spread against wheat sits two standard deviations from its average even as Argentine Pampas rainfall sits at the driest end of its historical window, sharpening a feed substitution story.

  3. 3

    Gold, silver and copper all fell together, an unusual alignment since silver and copper normally track industrial demand while gold tracks haven demand separately.

The complex

33.18+0.91% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index101.27+0.18%
  • 10Y Treasury5.16%+0.94%
  • Fear and Greed36+2.86%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Inflation pressure6 of the 8 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Gasoline at +6.71%. That is consistent with rising input-cost pressure across energy, grains and softs together.from Brent, WTI, Gasoline, Diesel, Nat gas, Cocoa
  • Food pressure4 of the 6 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Sugar at -6.49%. That is consistent with easing pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Corn, Soy oil, Cattle, Sugar
  • Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -2.32%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
  • Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Gasoline at +6.71%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain1340.00%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain274.3+4.18%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel194.51-0.32%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.77-1.99%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Refused today

  • Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 13.4 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.