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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Monday, September 28, 2026

Published Sep 28, 2026, 4:34 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +13.36%.

  • 78.250cents/lb+13.36% 1d+64.0% 1w+53.2% 1m
  • 217.450cents/lb-2.12% 1d-4.8% 1w-4.7% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

In our news record

2026-09-28Global beef shortage looming as top producers face cattle stock declineAl Jazeera

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

Hogs surged sharply while cattle slipped, a divergence extreme enough that the cattle-hogs relationship check itself was disabled today.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

ENERGY RALLY

2 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Brent at +8.05%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 92.60USD/bbl+0.21% 1d+1.0% 1w+12.8% 1m
  • 3.338USD/gal+4.71% 1d+27.3% 1w+28.5% 1m
  • 105.28USD/bbl+8.05% 1d+24.3% 1w+37.8% 1m
Why it may be moving

US refinery utilisation -1.5ppUS refinery utilisation is 92.5% as of 2026-09-25, -1.5pp against 94.0% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.Refiners are running a smaller share of capacity than a week earlier, tightening the link between crude and fuel output.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Crude against gasoline: +0.21% against +4.71% today, and the spread between them sits 2.3 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

Crude fell while refinery utilisation dropped, yet Brent rose and diesel firmed, underscoring strain between crude and refined product markets.

METALS SELLOFF

3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at -5.53%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 4,168.40USD/oz-3.54% 1d-4.9% 1w-5.9% 1m
  • 61.220USD/oz-5.53% 1d-10.2% 1w-10.7% 1m
  • 22.01USD-4.22% 1d-7.2% 1w-11.2% 1m
What the relationship says

Divergence. Gold against silver: -3.54% against -5.53% today, and the spread between them sits 1.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.

Why it may be moving

Priced without a published count.

In our news record

2026-09-28Northern Star rejects $27 billion Gold Fields takeover bidCNBC Top News

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

Palladium, platinum and copper all fell together, aligning with broader softness across industrial demand names today.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Sugar at -5.62%.

  • 17.46cents/lb-5.62% 1d-20.1% 1w-21.6% 1m
  • 288.75cents/lb+3.64% 1d+4.5% 1w-16.0% 1m
  • 5,589USD/t-0.53% 1d+4.4% 1w-16.0% 1m
Why it may be moving

Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.

Sugar's sharp drop stands out against a cotton crop rated well below its five-year average condition for this week.

GRAINS SELLOFF

3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soybeans at -2.33%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

  • 523.00cents/bu-0.99% 1d-3.7% 1w+1.6% 1m
  • 688.75cents/bu-2.06% 1d-5.2% 1w-9.0% 1m
  • 1,288.25cents/bu-2.33% 1d-3.0% 1w+1.0% 1m
Why it may be moving

US Corn Belt rainfall 100th percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-09-26. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Corn Belt soils have received unusually heavy rainfall for this time of year, among the wettest such windows in fifteen years.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Corn against wheat: -0.99% against -2.06% today, and the spread between them sits 2.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.

Corn edged higher while wheat fell, widening a feed-substitution spread that already sat two standard deviations from its norm.

Key insights

  1. 1

    Cattle and hogs diverged so sharply in one session that the pair's own relationship check was suspended, echoing a similar flag on crude versus its products.

  2. 2

    Brent rose while WTI fell and refinery utilisation dropped, a combination pointing to a widening gap between crude grades and refined fuel markets.

  3. 3

    Sugar's near six percent drop is the sharpest single move across the softs complex, standing apart from cotton's weak condition reading and coffee's modest gain.

The complex

32.49-0.40% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index101.19+0.20%
  • 10Y Treasury5.24%+1.08%
  • Fear and Greed34-8.11%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Industrial demand3 of the 3 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Palladium at -4.22%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Platinum, Palladium
  • Food pressure7 of the 9 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Sugar at -5.62%. That is consistent with easing pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soy oil, Cattle, Cocoa, Sugar
  • Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -5.53%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
  • Transportation fuel cost2 of the 2 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Diesel at +6.57%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from Gasoline, Diesel

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain1340.00%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain274.3+4.18%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel194.51-0.32%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.77-1.99%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-23, measured against 2026-09-16. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Refused today

  • Brent against WTI: the spread between these two moved 7.5 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.
  • Crude against diesel: the spread between these two moved 6.2 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.
  • Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 14.7 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.