What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +14.77%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs+14.77%77.875 cents/lb
Cattle-1.94%218.850 cents/lb
Meat processing
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs+14.77%77.875 cents/lb
Cattle-1.94%218.850 cents/lb
Meat processing
77.875cents/lb+14.77% 1d+90.4% 1w+157.0% 1m
218.850cents/lb-1.94% 1d-7.9% 1w-5.9% 1m
Why it may be moving
No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.
Hogs surged far ahead of cattle with no upstream reading recorded, leaving the one-session divergence between the two meat markets unexplained here.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
ENERGY SELLOFF
2 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being WTI at -4.48%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
Why it may be moving
US distillate inventories-2.1%US distillate inventories is 105,180 MBBL for the week ending 2026-09-25, -2.1% against 107,431 in the prior published week. Diesel and heating oil in tank, which is the stock behind the freight and heating fuel.Diesel and heating oil held in storage fell on the week, a draw on the fuel inventory that sits behind freight and heating demand.
US refinery utilisation-1.5ppUS refinery utilisation is 92.5% as of 2026-09-25, -1.5pp against 94.0% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.Refiners ran a smaller share of capacity than the prior week, a physical throughput constraint between crude supply and...
What the relationship says
<- =/= ->Sharp divergence.Brent against WTI: -0.06% against -4.48% today, and the spread between them sits 4.9 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one.
<- =/= ->Sharp divergence.Crude against diesel: -4.48% against -3.04% today, and the spread between them sits 4.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving.
The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
WTI fell much harder than Brent and than diesel, separating a domestic crude move from both the global benchmark and the distillate side of the barrel.
SOFTS RALLY
3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Cocoa at +5.37%.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Cotton condition-5.0pp
Cocoa+5.37%5,670 USD/t
Sugar+5.23%19.93 cents/lb
Cotton+1.51%75.15 cents/lb
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Cotton condition-5.0pp
Cocoa+5.37%5,670 USD/t
Sugar+5.23%19.93 cents/lb
Cotton+1.51%75.15 cents/lb
5,670USD/t+5.37% 1d+0.9% 1w-9.3% 1m
19.93cents/lb+5.23% 1d-9.2% 1w-28.2% 1m
75.15cents/lb+1.51% 1d-4.8% 1w-13.0% 1m
Why it may be moving
US upland cotton rated good or excellent-5.0ppUS upland cotton rated good or excellent is 35% for the week ending 2026-09-27, -5.0pp against USDA's own published five-year average of 40% for the same week. USDA's weekly survey of the share of the upland crop rated good or excellent, against USDA's own published five-year average for the same week. Upland is about 95 percent of the US crop, and the survey stops out of season rather than continuing at a stale reading.The share of the US cotton crop rated good or excellent sits below its own five-year seasonal norm for this week.
Cocoa, sugar and cotton rose together while the cotton crop reading sits below its own five-year average for the week, a supply-side backdrop to the cotton leg.
METALS SELLOFF
3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at -1.96%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Gold-0.95%4,162.30 USD/oz
Silver-1.96%59.977 USD/oz
Copper-0.70%6.492 USD/lb
Electrical equipment
Construction
<- =/= ->Sharp divergence<- =/= ->Divergence
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Gold-0.95%4,162.30 USD/oz
Silver-1.96%59.977 USD/oz
Copper-0.70%6.492 USD/lb
Electrical equipment
Construction
<- =/= ->Sharp divergence<- =/= ->Divergence
4,162.30USD/oz-0.95% 1d-0.1% 1w-1.2% 1m
59.977USD/oz-1.96% 1d-10.3% 1w-13.3% 1m
6.492USD/lb-0.70% 1d-7.6% 1w-7.9% 1m
What the relationship says
<- =/= ->Sharp divergence.Gold against silver: -0.95% against -1.96% today, and the spread between them sits 3.7 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.
<- =/= ->Divergence.Copper against gold: -0.70% against -0.95% today, and the spread between them sits 2.3 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The classic growth against haven reading. Informative, and not a forecast of either.
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Gold held up better than silver and copper, splitting haven demand from the industrial side of the metals complex on the same day.
GRAINS RECONVERGES
2 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soy oil at +1.23%. Reconverging is the relationship worth reading here.
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Corn Belt rain100th percentile
Corn-0.90%497.75 cents/bu
Wheat+0.04%683.00 cents/bu
Soy oil+1.23%68.21 cents/lb
Animal feed
Corn syrup
-> <-Reconverging
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Corn Belt rain100th percentile
Corn-0.90%497.75 cents/bu
Wheat+0.04%683.00 cents/bu
Soy oil+1.23%68.21 cents/lb
Animal feed
Corn syrup
-> <-Reconverging
497.75cents/bu-0.90% 1d-5.8% 1w-4.0% 1m
683.00cents/bu+0.04% 1d-2.9% 1w-9.5% 1m
68.21cents/lb+1.23% 1d-2.2% 1w-9.1% 1m
Why it may be moving
US Corn Belt rainfall100th percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-09-29. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Corn Belt rainfall over the past month ranks at the wettest extreme against the same calendar window in the past fifteen years.
Freight, as last published
Illinois River grain barge rate-9.6%Illinois River grain barge rate is 248.0 (index, 2017 = 100) in its weekly reading dated 2026-09-30, -9.6% against 274.3 in the prior published week. The cheapest inland leg for Corn Belt corn and soybeans heading down to the Gulf export elevators, and the one most exposed to river levels. Wheat is left out because little of it moves on this river. A weekly published figure, so not a measure of the latest close.
What the relationship says
-> <-Reconverging.Corn against wheat: the difference that had opened between them is closing again, -0.90% against +0.04% today, with the spread back inside its own recent range after sitting outside it in the last 5 sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.
Corn and wheat, which had drifted apart over the prior five sessions, moved back together today even as Corn Belt rainfall sits at a multi-year high for the window.
Key insights
1
The Brent-WTI and crude-diesel spreads remain multi-standard-deviation divergences for a second session running, even after narrowing from the prior reading, keeping the energy complex split between a global and a domestic signal.
2
Gold's relative firmness against both silver and copper echoes the prior session's growth-versus-haven split, with industrial demand readings across silver and copper continuing to underperform gold.
3
Hogs and cattle moved apart again by an amount the feed guard withheld as a relationship, the second consecutive session this pairing has been judged too wide a jump to draw.
The complex
32.37-0.52% 1d
A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.
Market context
US Dollar Index102.14+0.24%
10Y Treasury5.31%+0.64%
Fear and Greed44+41.94%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Across the complexes
Industrial demand2 of the 3 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being WTI at -4.48%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, WTI
Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -1.96%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being WTI at -4.48%. That is consistent with falling transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel
Reading the diagrams
->Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
<- =/= ->DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
-> <-ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
-> ->ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
<->SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
\ /Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.
What it costs to move it
RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Shuttle rail, grain130-2.99%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-30, measured against 2026-09-23. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
Illinois River barge, grain248-9.59%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-30, measured against 2026-09-23. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel193.24-0.65%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-30, measured against 2026-09-23. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.770.00%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-09-30, measured against 2026-09-23. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Refused today
Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 15.7 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.