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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Friday, October 9, 2026

Published Oct 9, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

ENERGY RALLY

3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Gasoline at +7.97%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 91.49USD/bbl+5.00% 1d-1.0% 1w+5.5% 1m
  • 3.316USD/gal+7.97% 1d+15.0% 1w+85.7% 1m
  • 4.883USD/gal+5.63% 1d+5.2% 1w+52.3% 1m
  • The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
What the relationship says

Sharp divergence. Crude against gasoline: +5.00% against +7.97% today, and the spread between them sits 3.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

Sharp divergence. Crude against diesel: +5.00% against +5.63% today, and the spread between them sits 3.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving.

Why it may be moving

Nothing unusual upstream.

In our news record

2026-10-09Trump Brokers Deal to Supply Russian Diesel to U.S. Markets Amid Refinery ConstraintsCNBC Top News

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.

Crude's gain trails gasoline and diesel sharply, pointing to a shift in refining margins rather than a supply shock across the barrel.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +9.73%.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Physical flow
  • 75.825cents/lb+9.73% 1d+67.9% 1w+273.7% 1m
  • 221.875cents/lb-0.85% 1d-5.2% 1w-11.8% 1m
Why it may be moving

No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.

Hogs surged while cattle slipped, pulling the complex in opposite directions with no upstream reading available to explain either move.

METALS SPLITS

3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at -2.04%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 4,157.00USD/oz+0.39% 1d-1.1% 1w-1.9% 1m
  • 59.064USD/oz-2.04% 1d-6.1% 1w-18.9% 1m
  • 6.519USD/lb-1.96% 1d-3.6% 1w-13.7% 1m
What the relationship says

Sharp divergence. Gold against silver: +0.39% against -2.04% today, and the spread between them sits 3.5 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.

Sharp divergence. Copper against gold: -1.96% against +0.39% today, and the spread between them sits 2.5 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The classic growth against haven reading. Informative, and not a forecast of either.

Why it may be moving

No upstream reading this session.

Gold held firm while silver and copper fell together, splitting haven demand from the industrial and growth-linked side of metals.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Sugar at -3.26%.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • 20.15cents/lb-3.26% 1d+6.4% 1w-25.0% 1m
  • 5,665USD/t+1.49% 1d+5.3% 1w-3.8% 1m
  • 289.05cents/lb-1.25% 1d+0.3% 1w-9.2% 1m
Why it may be moving

Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.

Sugar fell while cocoa rose and coffee slipped modestly, a mixed softs session with readings inside their normal ranges.

Key insights

  1. 1

    The crude-gasoline and crude-diesel spreads each sit three standard deviations or more from their sixty-session averages, suggesting refining economics rather than crude supply is driving the energy complex apart.

  2. 2

    Gold's small gain against silver and copper's near two percent drop together separate haven demand from factory demand within metals on the same session.

  3. 3

    The cattle-hogs spread moved too far in one session to be drawn as a relationship, a guard trip that recurs from the prior session alongside the energy complex split.

The complex

32.96+0.15% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index102.22+0.12%
  • 10Y Treasury5.24%+0.25%
  • Fear and Greed45+2.27%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Industrial demand3 of the 4 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being WTI at +5.00%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Platinum, Palladium, WTI
  • Food pressure6 of the 8 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Sugar at -3.26%. That is consistent with easing pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Cattle, Coffee, Sugar
  • Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Gasoline at +7.97%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel

Quiet today: Grains, nothing moved more than 0.77% and no pair in it is outside its own recent range.

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain134+3.08%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain248.92+0.37%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel192.6-0.33%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.770.00%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Refused today

  • Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 10.1 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.