What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
LIVESTOCK RALLY
2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +9.40%.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs+9.40%75.050 cents/lb
Cattle+0.64%224.975 cents/lb
Meat processing
Physical flow
75.050cents/lb+9.40% 1d+60.0% 1w+314.6% 1m
224.975cents/lb+0.64% 1d-2.7% 1w-10.8% 1m
Why it may be moving
No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.
Hogs surged far more than cattle, extending a multi-week run, though no upstream driver was measured to explain this session's jump.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
ENERGY RALLY
3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Gasoline at +4.29%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Gulf Coast heat93rd percentile
WTI+0.39%91.85 USD/bbl
Gasoline+4.29%3.295 USD/gal
Brent+0.42%104.72 USD/bbl
Diesel
Upstream driver
Physical flow
Divergence
91.85USD/bbl+0.39% 1d+4.1% 1w+2.6% 1m
3.295USD/gal+4.29% 1d+23.2% 1w+96.2% 1m
104.72USD/bbl+0.42% 1d+2.4% 1w+48.6% 1m
Why it may be moving
US Gulf Coast temperature93rd percentileUS Gulf Coast temperature sits in the 93rd percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-06. The refining and gas producing coast. Heat is both a power-burn demand and a refinery-run condition there.Unusually hot Gulf Coast conditions can strain refinery runs and lift power-burn demand along the US refining and gas...
What the relationship says
Sharp divergence.Brent against WTI: +0.42% against +0.39% today, and the spread between them sits 2.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one.
Sharp divergence.Crude against gasoline: +0.39% against +4.29% today, and the spread between them sits 3.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.
Gasoline far outran both crude benchmarks, pointing to refining margin shifts rather than a crude supply event, with Gulf heat a plausible refinery and demand factor.
GRAINS SPLITS
3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Corn at -4.10%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Corn condition-6.0pp
Corn Belt rain100th percentile
Corn-4.10%479.75 cents/bu
Soybeans+0.35%1,292.00 cents/bu
Wheat-1.79%671.00 cents/bu
Animal feed
Corn syrup
Cooking oil
Upstream driver
Common driver
Physical flow
Divergence
Substitution
479.75cents/bu-4.10% 1d-3.6% 1w-5.5% 1m
1,292.00cents/bu+0.35% 1d+1.1% 1w-0.3% 1m
671.00cents/bu-1.79% 1d-1.8% 1w-5.7% 1m
Why it may be moving
US corn rated good or excellent-6.0ppUS corn rated good or excellent is 54% for the week ending 2026-10-04, -6.0pp against USDA's own published five-year average of 60% for the same week. USDA's weekly condition survey against USDA's own published five-year average for the same week. A physical read on the growing season.Corn crop quality is running well below its seasonal norm, a physical sign of a weaker growing season than usual.
US Corn Belt rainfall100th percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-06. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Record wet conditions across the Corn Belt mark an unusually saturated growing season for corn and soybean acreage.
What the relationship says
Divergence.Corn against soybeans: -4.10% against +0.35% today, and the spread between them sits 1.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The two compete for the same acres, so a lasting difference is a planting decision.
Substitutes, moving together.Corn against wheat: -4.10% against -1.79%, in the same direction, with the spread inside its own recent range. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.
Corn fell sharply while soybeans held firm, a split consistent with acreage shifting toward soy, as wet Corn Belt conditions and weak crop ratings weigh on corn.
SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Cotton at +5.68%.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Cotton condition-8.0pp
Cotton+5.68%80.54 cents/lb
Coffee-0.73%286.95 cents/lb
Sugar+0.50%20.25 cents/lb
Upstream driver
80.54cents/lb+5.68% 1d+7.2% 1w-3.8% 1m
286.95cents/lb-0.73% 1d-0.6% 1w-10.1% 1m
20.25cents/lb+0.50% 1d+1.6% 1w-25.8% 1m
Why it may be moving
US upland cotton rated good or excellent-8.0ppUS upland cotton rated good or excellent is 33% for the week ending 2026-10-04, -8.0pp against USDA's own published five-year average of 41% for the same week. USDA's weekly survey of the share of the upland crop rated good or excellent, against USDA's own published five-year average for the same week. Upland is about 95 percent of the US crop, and the survey stops out of season rather than continuing at a stale reading.Upland cotton quality is running notably below its five-year seasonal average, signaling a weaker crop than typical for this week.
Cotton jumped while coffee slipped and sugar was flat, against a backdrop of cotton crop ratings running below their five-year average.
METALS RALLY
3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at +2.10%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Gold+1.43%4,216.30 USD/oz
Silver+2.10%60.670 USD/oz
Copper+1.13%6.642 USD/lb
Electrical equipment
Construction
Physical flow
Divergence
4,216.30USD/oz+1.43% 1d+1.3% 1w-1.0% 1m
60.670USD/oz+2.10% 1d-2.2% 1w-19.2% 1m
6.642USD/lb+1.13% 1d-1.8% 1w-13.6% 1m
What the relationship says
Sharp divergence.Gold against silver: +1.43% against +2.10% today, and the spread between them sits 3.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.
Divergence.Copper against gold: +1.13% against +1.43% today, and the spread between them sits 2.4 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The classic growth against haven reading. Informative, and not a forecast of either.
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Silver and copper both outpaced gold, suggesting factory and industrial demand is reasserting itself alongside, not instead of, haven buying.
Key insights
1
The cattle-hogs spread moved past its guard bound for a second straight session, with hogs now up over 300% on the month, a scale of divergence worth flagging on its own.
2
Energy's internal split (gasoline far outrunning both crude grades) and metals' split (silver and copper outrunning gold) both point toward demand-side or processing-side forces distinct from the underlying raw commodity.
3
Corn and wheat moved together while corn and soybeans diverged, consistent with feed substitution holding steady even as acreage economics between corn and soy shift apart.
The complex
33.33+1.12% 1d
A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.
Market context
US Dollar Index102.61+0.37%
10Y Treasury5.24%-0.08%
Fear and Greed45+2.27%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Across the complexes
Industrial demand2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Copper at +1.13%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, WTI
Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Silver at +2.10%. That is consistent with firmer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
Transportation fuel cost2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Gasoline at +4.29%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline
Reading the diagrams
Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.
What it costs to move it
RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
Long-distance truckload207.64+1.90%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Truck transportation, all213.3+1.94%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
Line-haul railroads272.35+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Rail freight, commodity basis159.15+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Shuttle rail, grain134+3.08%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
Illinois River barge, grain248.92+0.37%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel192.6-0.33%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel175.770.00%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-07, measured against 2026-09-30. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Deep sea freight518.62-0.49%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-08-01, measured against 2026-07-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Refused today
Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 8.4 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.