What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
LIVESTOCK SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at -11.88%.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
No upstream reading this sessionNo upstream reading was measured for these markets this session.
Hogs-11.88%66.575 cents/lb
Cattle+0.92%225.950 cents/lb
Meat processing
Physical flow
66.575cents/lb-11.88% 1d-2.4% 1w-6.4% 1m
225.950cents/lb+0.92% 1d+1.8% 1w+2.4% 1m
Why it may be moving
No upstream reading was measured for these markets this session, so nothing here has been compared against a threshold.
Hogs plunged far more than cattle rose, pulling the pair's spread sharply apart with no upstream reading available to explain the gap.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
METALS SPLITS
3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at +2.32%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Priced without a published countNo public count stands behind these metals.
Gold+1.51%4,170.10 USD/oz
Silver+2.32%56.837 USD/oz
Palladium-1.99%20.17 USD
Divergence
4,170.10USD/oz+1.51% 1d+0.3% 1w-0.2% 1m
56.837USD/oz+2.32% 1d-3.8% 1w-10.1% 1m
20.17USD-1.99% 1d-2.9% 1w-12.7% 1m
What the relationship says
Sharp divergence.Gold against silver: +1.51% against +2.32% today, and the spread between them sits 3.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.
Why it may be moving
Priced without a published count.
Gold and silver both climbed but silver's gain outpaced gold's by a wide margin, a split consistent with haven buying layered on top of industrial demand.
ENERGY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being WTI at +3.03%. Confirming is the relationship worth reading here.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Gasoline demand-4.1%
Gulf Coast heat100th percentile
WTI+3.03%97.97 USD/bbl
Gasoline-2.43%3.180 USD/gal
Diesel+2.14%4.846 USD/gal
Trucking fuel costfuel cost, not a freight rate
Rail fuel costfuel cost, not a freight rate
Upstream driver
Common driver
Physical flow
Confirmation
97.97USD/bbl+3.03% 1d+7.1% 1w-4.1% 1m
3.180USD/gal-2.43% 1d-0.5% 1w-4.8% 1m
4.846USD/gal+2.14% 1d+3.1% 1w-4.4% 1m
The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
Why it may be moving
US gasoline product supplied-4.1%US gasoline product supplied is 8,408 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-09, -4.1% against 8,769 in the prior published week. EIA's measured proxy for gasoline actually consumed, rather than a survey of intentions.Actual gasoline consumption at the pump fell from the prior week, pointing to softer driving demand rather than a survey estimate.
US Gulf Coast temperature100th percentileUS Gulf Coast temperature sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-10. The refining and gas producing coast. Heat is both a power-burn demand and a refinery-run condition there.Unusually hot conditions on the refining and gas producing coast raise power burn and strain refinery operating conditions there.
What the relationship says
Confirming.Crude against diesel: +3.03% against +2.14%, in the same direction, with the spread inside its own recent range. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving.
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
In the Federal Register
Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16.Read the document
Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.
The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
Crude and diesel rose together while gasoline fell, with weak gasoline demand and Gulf heat both bearing on refinery output and fuel use.
SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS
3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Cocoa at +1.67%.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Nothing unusual upstreamEvery upstream reading is inside its own threshold.
Cocoa+1.67%5,831 USD/t
Sugar+1.39%21.13 cents/lb
Coffee-1.09%294.80 cents/lb
5,831USD/t+1.67% 1d+2.9% 1w-1.1% 1m
21.13cents/lb+1.39% 1d+4.9% 1w+17.8% 1m
294.80cents/lb-1.09% 1d+2.0% 1w-1.6% 1m
Why it may be moving
Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.
Cocoa, sugar and coffee moved in mixed directions but every upstream reading behind them remains ordinary, so nothing measured is driving this.
GRAINS SELLOFF
3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soybeans at -1.12%.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
Upstream driverCommodityWhere it goes
Corn Belt rain93rd percentile
Black Sea rain7th percentile
Soybeans-1.12%1,263.00 cents/bu
Corn-0.57%478.00 cents/bu
Wheat-0.48%670.00 cents/bu
Animal feed
Cooking oil
Corn syrup
Common driver
Upstream driver
Physical flow
1,263.00cents/bu-1.12% 1d-1.9% 1w-4.2% 1m
478.00cents/bu-0.57% 1d-4.4% 1w-10.8% 1m
670.00cents/bu-0.48% 1d-1.9% 1w-8.0% 1m
Why it may be moving
US Corn Belt rainfall93rd percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 93rd percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-10. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Corn and soybean growing country saw unusually heavy rainfall for this time of year over the past month.
Black Sea rainfall7th percentileBlack Sea rainfall sits in the 7th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much drier than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-10. The wheat export belt. This is the growing condition only: nothing in this system holds an export or shipping record for it.The wheat export growing region saw unusually dry conditions for this time of year over the past month.
In the Federal Register
Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16.Read the document
Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.
Soybeans, corn and wheat all eased even as Corn Belt rain ran unusually heavy and Black Sea rain unusually sparse for the wheat belt.
Key insights
1
Gold and silver have diverged sharply for a second straight session, with silver's industrial-linked swings now running in the opposite direction from its prior slide.
2
Crude and gasoline's one-session spread moved far enough that the system withheld the relationship, even as crude and diesel confirmed each other's direction.
3
Palladium's decline alongside other industrial-linked names lines up with the softer industrial demand theme, while gold and silver together point to firmer haven demand.
The complex
33.74+1.32% 1d
A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.
Market context
US Dollar Index101.77-0.24%
10Y Treasury5.10%+0.18%
Fear and Greed18-41.94%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Across the complexes
Industrial demand2 of the 3 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Palladium at -1.99%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Palladium
Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Silver at +2.32%. That is consistent with firmer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
Transportation fuel cost2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being WTI at +3.03%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Diesel
Reading the diagrams
Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.
What it costs to move it
RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
Shuttle rail, grain135+0.75%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
Illinois River barge, grain252.28+1.35%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel193.87+0.66%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel178.15+1.35%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Refused today
Crude against gasoline: the spread between these two moved 5.4 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.
Cattle against hogs: the spread between these two moved 13.6 points in one session, past the 5 point bound this pair is drawn under, so the relationship is not drawn today. Open work item #303 is a flag against this feed for exactly this shape of one-session jump.