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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Published Oct 20, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

ENERGY SPLITS

3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being WTI at +2.22%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Upstream driver
  • Common driver
  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 103.66USD/bbl+2.22% 1d+10.6% 1w+12.1% 1m
  • 3.191USD/gal-1.36% 1d+0.6% 1w-4.6% 1m
  • 4.920USD/gal+0.43% 1d+8.2% 1w+4.5% 1m
  • The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
Why it may be moving

US gasoline product supplied -4.1%US gasoline product supplied is 8,408 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-09, -4.1% against 8,769 in the prior published week. EIA's measured proxy for gasoline actually consumed, rather than a survey of intentions.Actual gasoline consumption dropped noticeably week over week, a real usage decline rather than a change in survey sentiment.

US Gulf Coast temperature 100th percentileUS Gulf Coast temperature sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-14. The refining and gas producing coast. Heat is both a power-burn demand and a refinery-run condition there.Unusually intense Gulf Coast heat raises power demand and can strain refinery operating conditions along that coast.

What the relationship says

Sharp divergence. Crude against gasoline: +2.22% against -1.36% today, and the spread between them sits 2.5 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

Divergence. Crude against diesel: +2.22% against +0.43% today, and the spread between them sits 2.1 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving.

In our news record

2026-10-20U.S. oil surges past $110 per barrel amid Middle East tensionsCNBC Top News

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

In the Federal Register

Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16. Read the document

Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.

The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.

Crude's jump against gasoline's drop points to a refining margin shift, while crude outpacing diesel reflects heating and freight demand separating from driving demand.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

GRAINS SELLOFF

3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Corn at -1.53%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Common driver
  • Upstream driver
  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 467.00cents/bu-1.53% 1d-3.3% 1w-14.0% 1m
  • 1,253.50cents/bu-0.61% 1d-2.7% 1w-5.6% 1m
  • 655.25cents/bu-0.79% 1d-2.5% 1w-9.8% 1m
Why it may be moving

US Corn Belt rainfall 93rd percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 93rd percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-14. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Corn Belt rainfall is running far above normal for this time of year across the corn and soybean growing region.

Black Sea rainfall 7th percentileBlack Sea rainfall sits in the 7th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much drier than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-14. The wheat export belt. This is the growing condition only: nothing in this system holds an export or shipping record for it.Black Sea wheat country is seeing much drier than normal conditions, a growing-condition signal with no export data attached.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Corn against soybeans: -1.53% against -0.61% today, and the spread between them sits 1.7 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The two compete for the same acres, so a lasting difference is a planting decision.

In the Federal Register

Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16. Read the document

Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.

Corn falling faster than soybeans despite heavy Corn Belt rain suggests acreage and demand positioning rather than a weather-driven supply shock.

METALS SELLOFF

2 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Palladium at -1.48%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Divergence
  • 4,160.10USD/oz-0.50% 1d-0.7% 1w-1.6% 1m
  • 56.974USD/oz-0.04% 1d-5.3% 1w-13.4% 1m
  • 19.94USD-1.48% 1d-2.2% 1w-16.0% 1m
What the relationship says

Sharp divergence. Gold against silver: -0.50% against -0.04% today, and the spread between them sits 2.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.

Why it may be moving

Priced without a published count.

Gold slipping while silver barely moves widens their spread sharply, separating haven selling from silver's industrial price support.

LIVESTOCK EASES

1 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at -0.86%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 227.500cents/lb-0.02% 1d+1.2% 1w+3.0% 1m
  • 66.350cents/lb-0.86% 1d-2.5% 1w-5.6% 1m
What the relationship says

Divergence. Cattle against hogs: -0.02% against -0.86% today, and the spread between them sits 1.8 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Both eat corn and both sell into meat processing, so they part company for reasons inside their own herds.

Why it may be moving

No upstream reading this session.

Hogs easing while cattle holds flat shows the two herds diverging on their own fundamentals despite sharing the same corn feed cost base.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Coffee at +3.30%.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • 315.70cents/lb+3.30% 1d+8.6% 1w+14.2% 1m
  • 20.57cents/lb-1.34% 1d-1.3% 1w+17.7% 1m
  • 5,687USD/t+0.74% 1d+0.2% 1w+6.3% 1m
Why it may be moving

Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.

In our news record

2026-10-20Ivory Coast DJ restores vinyl records to preserve musical heritageFrance 24

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

Key insights

  1. 1

    Crude's gain pulling away from both gasoline and diesel at over two standard deviations each points to a refining margin story rather than a shared crude supply move.

  2. 2

    Gold and silver's spread stretching again, even smaller than yesterday's 2.9 sigma, keeps showing haven demand and industrial demand pulling apart repeatedly.

  3. 3

    Grains and livestock both show internal divergences today, corn against soybeans and cattle against hogs, despite sharing feed and acreage linkages.

The complex

33.57-0.33% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index101.71-0.27%
  • 10Y Treasury5.12%-0.37%
  • Fear and Greed26+13.04%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Industrial demand2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being WTI at +2.22%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Platinum, WTI
  • Food pressure6 of the 8 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Corn at -1.53%. That is consistent with easing pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soy oil, Hogs, Sugar
  • Transportation fuel cost2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being WTI at +2.22%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Diesel

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain135+0.75%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain252.28+1.35%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel193.87+0.66%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel178.15+1.35%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.