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Latest Commodity Explorer

Commodity Explorer, Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Published Oct 21, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.

Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.

ENERGY SELLOFF

3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Nat gas at -3.11%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Upstream driver
  • Common driver
  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 101.79USD/bbl-1.80% 1d+8.1% 1w+10.1% 1m
  • 3.117USD/gal-2.33% 1d-0.5% 1w-6.8% 1m
  • 2.963USD/MMBtu-3.11% 1d-9.7% 1w+0.9% 1m
Why it may be moving

US gasoline product supplied -4.1%US gasoline product supplied is 8,408 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-09, -4.1% against 8,769 in the prior published week. EIA's measured proxy for gasoline actually consumed, rather than a survey of intentions.Measured gasoline consumption fell noticeably week on week, pointing to softer actual fuel demand rather than a crude-side issue.

US Gulf Coast temperature 100th percentileUS Gulf Coast temperature sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-15. The refining and gas producing coast. Heat is both a power-burn demand and a refinery-run condition there.Unusually hot conditions on the refining coast can strain refinery runs even while adding to regional power-burn gas demand.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Crude against gasoline: -1.80% against -2.33% today, and the spread between them sits 2.4 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.

In our news record

2026-10-21U.S. Secretary Rubio visits Reliance refinery to explore Venezuelan crude partnershipCNBC Top News

2026-10-20U.S. oil surges past $110 per barrel amid Middle East tensionsCNBC Top News

Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.

In the Federal Register

Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16. Read the document

Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.

Crude falling less than gasoline widens the refining margin even as both drop, pointing to margin compression rather than a crude supply shock.

The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.

GRAINS SELLOFF

3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Wheat at -1.83%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Common driver
  • Upstream driver
  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • Substitution
  • 462.00cents/bu-1.07% 1d-4.3% 1w-14.9% 1m
  • 1,248.25cents/bu-0.42% 1d-2.8% 1w-6.0% 1m
  • 643.25cents/bu-1.83% 1d-3.9% 1w-11.5% 1m
Why it may be moving

US Corn Belt rainfall 100th percentileUS Corn Belt rainfall sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-15. A thirty-one day rainfall total ranked against the same window in each of the preceding fifteen years, over the corn and soybean belt.Exceptionally wet conditions across the corn and soybean belt point to favorable moisture late in the growing window.

Black Sea rainfall 7th percentileBlack Sea rainfall sits in the 7th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much drier than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-15. The wheat export belt. This is the growing condition only: nothing in this system holds an export or shipping record for it.Unusually dry conditions in the wheat export belt reflect growing stress, with no export or logistics data attached.

What the relationship says

Divergence. Corn against soybeans: -1.07% against -0.42% today, and the spread between them sits 1.9 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The two compete for the same acres, so a lasting difference is a planting decision.

Substitutes, moving together. Corn against wheat: -1.07% against -1.83%, in the same direction, with the spread inside its own recent range. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.

In the Federal Register

Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16. Read the document

Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.

Corn and soybeans split while corn and wheat moved together, suggesting an acreage-linked divergence distinct from the feed-ration substitution holding steady.

METALS SPLITS

3 of 5 metals names moved today, the largest being Silver at +1.28%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Divergence
  • 4,142.60USD/oz-0.42% 1d-0.8% 1w-2.0% 1m
  • 57.706USD/oz+1.28% 1d-2.5% 1w-12.3% 1m
  • 14.77USD-1.20% 1d+2.0% 1w-9.5% 1m
What the relationship says

Divergence. Gold against silver: -0.42% against +1.28% today, and the spread between them sits 2.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Silver is half industrial, so the two parting company separates haven demand from factory demand.

Why it may be moving

Priced without a published count.

Gold slipping while silver rose separates haven buying from industrial demand, continuing a recurring split between the two metals.

LIVESTOCK RALLY

2 of 2 livestock names moved today, the largest being Hogs at +1.21%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • Physical flow
  • Divergence
  • 229.450cents/lb+0.86% 1d+2.1% 1w+3.8% 1m
  • 67.150cents/lb+1.21% 1d-1.3% 1w-4.5% 1m
What the relationship says

Divergence. Cattle against hogs: +0.86% against +1.21% today, and the spread between them sits 1.8 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Both eat corn and both sell into meat processing, so they part company for reasons inside their own herds.

Why it may be moving

No upstream reading this session.

Cattle and hogs rose together but diverged in size, pointing to herd-specific conditions rather than the shared corn-feed link.

SOFTS SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Cocoa at +2.00%.

Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes

  • 5,801USD/t+2.00% 1d+1.2% 1w+8.4% 1m
  • 311.30cents/lb-1.39% 1d+6.4% 1w+12.6% 1m
  • 80.88cents/lb+0.94% 1d+0.5% 1w+1.3% 1m
Why it may be moving

Every upstream reading that bears on these markets is inside its publication window and inside its own deviation threshold today, so nothing measured here is driving the move.

Cocoa's rise alongside coffee's fall shows no common upstream reading behind the moves, since every softs input checked ordinary today.

Key insights

  1. 1

    Energy, grains and softs mostly fell together today, a broad pattern consistent with easing input cost pressure across the basket rather than any single commodity story.

  2. 2

    Gasoline fell faster than crude for a second session, extending a refining margin divergence beyond two standard deviations rather than resolving it.

  3. 3

    The gold-silver spread remains stretched at 2.0 sigma, a slightly smaller gap than the prior session's 2.9 sigma but still separating haven from industrial demand.

The complex

33.50-0.21% 1d

A fund tracking a diversified commodity futures basket across energy, metals and agriculture. The one number here that is about the complex rather than about a market.

Market context

  • US Dollar Index101.70-0.01%
  • 10Y Treasury5.15%+0.57%
  • Fear and Greed31+19.23%

Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.

Across the complexes

  • Inflation pressure8 of the 9 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Nat gas at -3.11%. That is consistent with easing input-cost pressure across energy, grains and softs together.from Brent, WTI, Gasoline, Nat gas, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Coffee
  • Industrial demand3 of the 4 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being WTI at -1.80%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Platinum, Palladium, WTI
  • Transportation fuel cost2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Gasoline at -2.33%. That is consistent with falling transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline

Reading the diagrams

  • Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
  • DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
  • ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
  • ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
  • SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
  • Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.

What it costs to move it

RoadThe road leg. The diesel price elsewhere on this page is the fuel that goes into a haul, which is a different number from what the haul is sold for and moves for different reasons. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index.
  • Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
RailThe rail leg, which carries bulk commodities over distances a truck cannot price competitively. Priced here by a monthly billed-rate index and a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
  • Shuttle rail, grain135+0.75%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
BargeThe inland waterway leg of a US Gulf export cargo, down the Illinois River and the Mississippi to the export elevators. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate.
  • Illinois River barge, grain252.28+1.35%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
OceanThe seaborne leg. Bulk grain on the two US export routes to Japan is published free; a container spot rate is a commercial product, so a boxed cargo is priced on this page by nothing. Priced here by a weekly grain freight rate and a monthly billed-rate index.
  • US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel193.87+0.66%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel178.15+1.35%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-14, measured against 2026-10-07. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
  • Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.

USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.

No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.

Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.