Commodity Explorer, Friday, October 23, 2026
Published Oct 23, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Commodity Explorer as drawn for the share card of Friday, October 23, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Tap a commodity to move. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
Today's relationship
WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil made the largest move on the board.
The US crude benchmark, priced inland at Cushing.
- WTI+20.8%
Stored daily closes.
3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being WTI at +3.82%. Sharp divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Crude pulling away from both gasoline and diesel points to refining margins shifting rather than a uniform supply move across the barrel.
US gasoline product supplied -6.9%US gasoline product supplied is 8,358 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-23, -6.9% against 8,982 in the prior published week. EIA's measured proxy for gasoline actually consumed, rather than a survey of intentions.Actual gasoline consumption jumped sharply week over week, a real demand pickup rather than a survey-based estimate.
US Gulf Coast temperature 93rd percentileUS Gulf Coast temperature sits in the 93rd percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-10-23. The refining and gas producing coast. Heat is both a power-burn demand and a refinery-run condition there.Unusually hot Gulf Coast conditions stress both refinery throughput and power-burn demand along the refining coast.
Managed-money net is +2.0% of open interest as of Tuesday 2026-10-20, down 0.2 points on the week: an ordinary week by its own history. Positioning, never a physical driver.
CFTC report, published weekly: context and not a same-session cause.
2026-10-23: U.S. crude oil holds above $100 per barrel as Iran warns of military readinessCNBC Top News
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
- Upstream driver
- Common driver
- Physical flow
- Divergence
Brent against WTI: Aligned, 1.2 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one. Brent +7.42% against WTI +3.82% on the session.
Crude against gasoline: Diverging, 2.4 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story. Gasoline +1.10% against WTI +3.82% on the session.
Crude against diesel: Sharply diverging, 2.7 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving. Diesel +1.06% against WTI +3.82% on the session.
Energy fund (XLE): +2.60% on 2026-10-23. Producers sell crude, so this fund holds the revenue side of the market. A sector fund stands for the nearest listed buyers and is not a measured link.
Named holdings of the fund: Exxon Mobil (XOM) 23.99% of the fund, +2.79% on the session; Chevron (CVX) 18.26% of the fund.
The dollar index moved +0.15% on the session (close of 2026-10-23). Macro context, not tested against this market.
Sharp divergence. Crude against diesel: +3.82% against +1.06% today, and the spread between them sits 2.7 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Distillate is the other half of the barrel, and it answers to freight and heating demand rather than to driving.
Divergence. Crude against gasoline: +3.82% against +1.10% today, and the spread between them sits 2.4 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.
2026-10-23U.S. crude oil holds above $100 per barrel as Iran warns of military readinessCNBC Top News
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Proposed rule:Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Reallocation of Additional 2025 Small Refinery Exemptionspublished in the Federal Register on 2026-10-16. Read the document
Documents the Federal Register published in the ten days up to this session, matched to these markets by agency, document type and regulation part. They are listed for the record; no price move is attributed to any of them.
The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
Upstream
Pairs
Downstream
Trades against
Who buys it
Every commodity
Energy
Metals
Grains
Livestock
Softs
Broad basket
- 1
Metals, grains and livestock all show two-sigma internal divergences today while softs stayed uniform and ordinary, a sharp contrast in complex-wide coherence.
- 2
The energy complex is rallying together in percent terms but splitting apart on refining economics, with diesel outpacing crude by nearly a full standard deviation beyond gasoline's gap.
- 3
Silver's drop of over four and a half percent against gold's smaller decline underscores the haven theme being driven more by industrial exposure than by monetary demand alone.
What it costs to move it
- Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Shuttle rail, grain129-4.44%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-21, measured against 2026-10-14. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Illinois River barge, grain236.38-6.30%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-21, measured against 2026-10-14. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel195.14+0.66%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-21, measured against 2026-10-14. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel178.150.00%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-10-21, measured against 2026-10-14. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Across the complexes, macro context and what was refused
- Inflation pressure6 of the 9 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Brent at +7.42%. That is consistent with rising input-cost pressure across energy, grains and softs together.from Brent, WTI, Gasoline, Diesel, Soybeans, Sugar
- Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -1.92%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
- Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being WTI at +3.82%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel
- US Dollar Index101.80+0.15%
- 10Y Treasury4.99%+0.71%
- Sentiment composite28-12.94%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Reading the diagrams
- Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
- DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
- ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
- ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
- SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
- Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.