Commodity Explorer, Thursday, November 5, 2026
Published Nov 5, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
On November 5 Broad Commodities (DBC) rose 0.6%. The lead story on the diagram is ENERGY SELLOFF, traced through 7 steps.
Commodity Explorer as drawn for the share card of Thursday, November 5, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Tap a commodity to move. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
Today's relationship
Brent Crude Oil
The desk's picture of the day is built around Brent Crude Oil.
The international crude benchmark. Read against WTI, the spread separates a global supply event from a US one.
- Brent+34.0%
Stored daily closes.
3 of 5 energy names moved today, the largest being Brent at +3.88%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
Crude fell further than gasoline and diesel, so the refining margin widened on both products. Gasoline demand rose on the week and distillate stocks fell, which sit beside the margin shift.
US gasoline product supplied +5.4%US gasoline product supplied is 8,808 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-30, +5.4% against 8,358 in the prior published week. EIA's measured proxy for gasoline actually consumed, rather than a survey of intentions.Measured gasoline consumption rose on the week, so drivers were taking more fuel from the system.
US refinery utilisation +1.7ppUS refinery utilisation is 94.5% as of 2026-10-30, +1.7pp against 92.8% in the prior published week. The share of operable refining capacity actually running. A fall is a physical constraint between crude and the products made from it.
Managed-money net is +2.2% of open interest as of Tuesday 2026-11-03, up 1.4 points on the week: a change that cleared the bar set by this contract's own stored history. Positioning, never a physical driver.
CFTC report, published weekly: context and not a same-session cause.
2026-11-05: Scientists develop membrane that uses crude oil to filter and refine itself at room temperatureScienceDaily
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
- Upstream driver
- Common driver
- Physical flow
- Divergence
- Confirmation
Brent against WTI: Aligned, 0.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one. WTI +2.72% against Brent +3.88% on the session.
Energy fund (XLE): -2.98% on 2026-11-05. Producers sell crude, so this fund holds the revenue side of the market. A sector fund stands for the nearest listed buyers and is not a measured link.
Named holdings of the fund: Exxon Mobil (XOM) 24.25% of the fund, -2.35% on the session; Chevron (CVX) 18.61% of the fund.
The dollar index moved +0.09% on the session (close of 2026-11-05). Macro context, not tested against this market.
Divergence. Crude against gasoline: +2.72% against +1.28% today, and the spread between them sits 1.7 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Gasoline is made from crude, so the two moving apart is a refining margin changing rather than a supply story.
Confirming. Brent against WTI: +3.88% against +2.72%, in the same direction, with the spread inside its own recent range. The spread between the international and the US benchmark separates a global supply event from a US one.
2026-11-05Scientists develop membrane that uses crude oil to filter and refine itself at room temperatureScienceDaily
Stored news items dated near this session and matched to these markets by name. Nothing here was measured against a threshold, and none of it is a driver.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
Upstream
Pairs
Downstream
Trades against
Who buys it
Open elsewhere
Every commodity
Energy
Metals
Grains
Livestock
Softs
Broad basket
- 1
Crude, gasoline and diesel all fell together, yet crude fell the most, and both product spreads sit 1.7 standard deviations from their 60 session averages. That is a refining margin shift, not a one-sided crude story.
- 2
Gold and silver both rose while copper barely moved, so copper's gap to gold has closed again. The gold to silver spread sits 2.1 standard deviations from its average, which separates haven demand from factory demand.
What it costs to move it
- Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Shuttle rail, grain128-1.54%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Illinois River barge, grain221.39-0.96%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel190.06-2.29%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel187.65+2.60%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Across the complexes, macro context and what was refused
- Industrial demand3 of the 4 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Palladium at +3.17%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Platinum, Palladium, WTI
- Food pressure7 of the 8 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Cocoa at -5.04%. That is consistent with easing pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Corn, Soybeans, Soy oil, Cattle, Hogs, Coffee, Cocoa
- Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Diesel at +3.48%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel
- US Dollar Index101.61+0.09%
- 10Y Treasury4.84%-1.16%
- Sentiment composite23-39.22%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Reading the diagrams
- Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
- DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
- ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
- ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
- SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
- Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.