Commodity Explorer, Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Published Nov 11, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
On November 11 Broad Commodities (DBC) rose 0.3%. The lead story on the diagram is GRAINS RALLY, traced through 8 steps.
Commodity Explorer as drawn for the share card of Wednesday, November 11, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Tap a commodity to move. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
Today's relationship
Cocoa
Cocoa made the largest move on the board.
Chocolate and confectionery, and a market with genuinely extreme supply-driven moves.
- Cocoa-10.6%
Stored daily closes.
3 of 4 softs names moved today, the largest being Cocoa at +6.73%.
Cocoa's drop sits beside West Africa cocoa belt rainfall in the 93rd percentile, a wet growing condition that is the only stored reading tied to it.
Brazil Cerrado rainfall 7th percentileBrazil Cerrado rainfall sits in the 7th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much drier than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-11-05. Soybeans, second-crop corn, coffee and cane, all from the same rainfall window.Dry conditions across Brazil's Cerrado bear on soybeans, second-crop corn, coffee and cane from the same window.
West Africa cocoa belt rainfall 93rd percentileWest Africa cocoa belt rainfall sits in the 93rd percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-11-05. The Ivorian cocoa belt, where about forty percent of the world crop grows. This is the growing condition only: nothing in this system holds an arrivals, grind or export record for cocoa.A wet window in the Ivorian cocoa belt is a growing condition, with no arrivals or grind record behind it.
Managed-money net is -6.8% of open interest as of Tuesday 2026-11-03, down 0.8 points on the week: an ordinary week by its own history. Positioning, never a physical driver.
CFTC report, published weekly: context and not a same-session cause.
Consumer Staples fund (XLP): +0.46% on 2026-11-11. It is the sector end of the Sector Supply Lines path Sugar and cocoa to staples, a stored link that is not a measured one. A sector fund stands for the nearest listed buyers and is not a measured link.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
- Upstream driver
The dollar index moved +0.66% on the session (close of 2026-11-11). Macro context, not tested against this market.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
Upstream
Pairs
Downstream
Who buys it
Every commodity
Energy
Metals
Grains
Livestock
Softs
Broad basket
- 1
Metals all fell together while the dollar index rose, yet gold and silver parted by 1.9 standard deviations of their spread, so silver's larger drop separates its industrial half from haven demand.
- 2
Cattle rose while hogs slipped, and their spread is 2.4 standard deviations from its 60 session average, with hogs down 21.46% over a month against 2.47% for cattle.
What it costs to move it
- Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Shuttle rail, grain128-1.54%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Illinois River barge, grain221.39-0.96%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel190.06-2.29%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel187.65+2.60%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Across the complexes, macro context and what was refused
- Inflation pressure7 of the 10 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Cocoa at +6.73%. That is consistent with rising input-cost pressure across energy, grains and softs together.from Brent, WTI, Diesel, Wheat, Soybeans, Cocoa, Sugar
- Industrial demand3 of the 4 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Copper at +0.75%. That is consistent with firmer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Palladium, WTI
- Food pressure5 of the 6 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Cocoa at +6.73%. That is consistent with rising pressure on food costs from the field and the feedlot.from Wheat, Soybeans, Soy oil, Cocoa, Sugar
- Transportation fuel cost2 of the 3 names moving in this theme rose today, the largest being Diesel at +1.76%. That is consistent with rising transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Diesel
- US Dollar Index102.93+0.66%
- 10Y Treasury5.00%+0.30%
- Sentiment composite32+13.08%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Reading the diagrams
- Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
- DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
- ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
- ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
- SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
- Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.