Global Macro Dashboard, Monday, October 12, 2026
Published Oct 12, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Key drivers, broader context, clearer decisions. Each macro reading carries its own observation period, which is printed on the reading.
Extreme greed is not favourable and extreme fear is not unfavourable. Both ends of CNN's own published bands are flagged; the middle is neutral.
Inflation
Year over year, read against the Federal Reserve's two percent goal. Moving away from it in either direction is the material move, so a fall is not automatically favourable.
Excluding food and energy. Same distance-to-target rule as headline CPI.
The price index the Federal Reserve's two percent goal is actually written against, which CPI is not. Same distance-to-target rule as the CPI tiles: moving away from two percent in either direction is the material move.
Excluding food and energy. The single number most often described as the one the Federal Reserve watches.
Labour
Half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. A rise is unfavourable. The Sahm rule reads a 0.5 point rise off the recent low as a recession marker in real time.
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
Average hourly pay across all private employees. A rise is a gain for households and a cost that feeds inflation, so no favourable direction is asserted here.
Rates and policy
The effective overnight rate, which is where policy actually is. A policy setting is neither favourable nor unfavourable by itself, so this tile takes no colour.
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
Growth
Real gross domestic product, year over year, published quarterly. It is the slowest reading on this page by a wide margin, so it carries no daily, weekly or monthly change.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly survey of manufacturers in its own district: the share reporting higher activity minus the share reporting lower. Above zero is expansion in that district. One region, not the national ISM index, which is licensed and not shown.
Key takeaways
- 1
Equities and rates moved together again but flipped direction as a pair: the S&P 500 fell 0.06 percent while the 10Y yield also slipped 0.08 percent, both declining instead of both rising as in the prior session.
- 2
Rates and the yield curve extended their recent pattern: the 10Y yield eased while the 2s10s spread narrowed further to 0.44pp from 0.47pp, a continued flattening that is still read as normal.
- 3
The dollar and commodities stayed in the unusual same-direction pattern noted previously: the dollar index rose 0.39 percent while crude oil also rose 0.39 percent, rather than the more typical inverse relationship.
- 4
Risk sentiment and volatility diverged: the VIX rose 2.76 percent on the day while the Fear and Greed reading, dated 2026-10-08, stood at 45 and had ticked up from 44, an improvement in sentiment alongside rising volatility.
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Equities
- 7,807.24-0.06%
- 27,245.90-0.44%
- 51,850.55+0.38%
- 2,794.47-0.45%
- 10,656.28+0.99%
- 25,277.68+0.76%
- 69,030.92-0.02%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7,807.24 | -0.06% | |
| 27,245.90 | -0.44% | |
| 51,850.55 | +0.38% | |
| 2,794.47 | -0.45% | |
| 10,656.28 | +0.99% | |
| 25,277.68 | +0.76% | |
| 69,030.92 | -0.02% |
Commodities
No green or red here. A rise in any of these is a gain for one side of the economy and a cost to the other, so the page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 91.85+0.39%
- 4,216.30+1.43%
- 6.64+1.13%
- 3.22+1.64%
- 479.75-4.10%
- 671.00-1.79%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 91.85 | +0.39% | |
| 4,216.30 | +1.43% | |
| 6.64 | +1.13% | |
| 3.22 | +1.64% | |
| 479.75 | -4.10% | |
| 671.00 | -1.79% |
Major currency pairs
No green or red here. Every pair is one currency against another, so a move is favourable for one side and costly to the other, and a stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad while it cheapens imports at home. The page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 1.1157-0.42%
- 158.643+0.26%
- 1.3206-0.27%
- 0.6959-0.45%
- 1.4285+0.16%
- 0.8348+0.59%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1157 | -0.42% | |
| 158.643 | +0.26% | |
| 1.3206 | -0.27% | |
| 0.6959 | -0.45% | |
| 1.4285 | +0.16% | |
| 0.8348 | +0.59% |