Global Macro Dashboard, Friday, October 16, 2026
Published Oct 16, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Key drivers, broader context, clearer decisions. Each macro reading carries its own observation period, which is printed on the reading.
Extreme greed is not favourable and extreme fear is not unfavourable. Both ends of CNN's own published bands are flagged; the middle is neutral.
Inflation
Year over year, read against the Federal Reserve's two percent goal. Moving away from it in either direction is the material move, so a fall is not automatically favourable.
Excluding food and energy. Same distance-to-target rule as headline CPI.
The price index the Federal Reserve's two percent goal is actually written against, which CPI is not. Same distance-to-target rule as the CPI tiles: moving away from two percent in either direction is the material move.
Excluding food and energy. The single number most often described as the one the Federal Reserve watches.
Labour
Half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. A rise is unfavourable. The Sahm rule reads a 0.5 point rise off the recent low as a recession marker in real time.
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
Average hourly pay across all private employees. A rise is a gain for households and a cost that feeds inflation, so no favourable direction is asserted here.
Rates and policy
The effective overnight rate, which is where policy actually is. A policy setting is neither favourable nor unfavourable by itself, so this tile takes no colour.
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
Growth
Real gross domestic product, year over year, published quarterly. It is the slowest reading on this page by a wide margin, so it carries no daily, weekly or monthly change.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly survey of manufacturers in its own district: the share reporting higher activity minus the share reporting lower. Above zero is expansion in that district. One region, not the national ISM index, which is licensed and not shown.
Key takeaways
- 1
Risk sentiment and volatility moved sharply together: the Fear and Greed reading fell to 18 from 31, landing in extreme fear, while the VIX jumped 22.36 percent on the day, a tighter joint move than the prior session's milder divergence.
- 2
Equities and volatility kept their usual inverse link: the S&P 500 fell 1.09 percent as the VIX rose 22.36 percent, reversing yesterday's cleaner version of the same pattern.
- 3
Dollar and commodities showed the textbook inverse relationship today: the dollar index fell 0.22 percent while gold rose 1.51 percent, breaking from the prior session when both moved lower together.
- 4
Inflation and rates remain on divergent tracks: CPI sits at 3.7 percent and continues moving away from the 2 percent goal, while the 2s10s spread narrowed further to 0.33pp, still read as normal.
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Equities
- 7,659.44-1.09%
- 26,140.03-2.15%
- 52,002.41-0.34%
- 2,721.37-1.66%
- 10,881.90+0.38%
- 25,622.61+0.95%
- 64,425.95-4.90%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7,659.44 | -1.09% | |
| 26,140.03 | -2.15% | |
| 52,002.41 | -0.34% | |
| 2,721.37 | -1.66% | |
| 10,881.90 | +0.38% | |
| 25,622.61 | +0.95% | |
| 64,425.95 | -4.90% |
Commodities
No green or red here. A rise in any of these is a gain for one side of the economy and a cost to the other, so the page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 97.97+3.03%
- 4,170.10+1.51%
- 6.51-1.51%
- 3.24+1.19%
- 478.00-0.57%
- 670.00-0.48%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 97.97 | +3.03% | |
| 4,170.10 | +1.51% | |
| 6.51 | -1.51% | |
| 3.24 | +1.19% | |
| 478.00 | -0.57% | |
| 670.00 | -0.48% |
Major currency pairs
No green or red here. Every pair is one currency against another, so a move is favourable for one side and costly to the other, and a stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad while it cheapens imports at home. The page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 1.1241+0.25%
- 157.974-0.11%
- 1.3330+0.43%
- 0.6948+0.42%
- 1.4139-0.38%
- 0.8238-0.48%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1241 | +0.25% | |
| 157.974 | -0.11% | |
| 1.3330 | +0.43% | |
| 0.6948 | +0.42% | |
| 1.4139 | -0.38% | |
| 0.8238 | -0.48% |