Global Macro Dashboard, Monday, October 26, 2026
Published Oct 26, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
On October 26 Sentiment composite stood at 28, down 4, which reads as neutral territory. On the heat map, equities scored favourable, rates showed no clear direction, inflation made a material move and the dollar showed no clear direction.
Global Macro Dashboard as drawn for the share card of Monday, October 26, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
Key drivers, broader context, clearer decisions. Each macro reading carries its own observation period, which is printed on the reading.
Today's relationship
Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm Payrolls made the largest move on the board.
What we measured
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
One step away
The question
Today's theme: Nonfarm Payrolls.
Nonfarm Payrolls made the largest move on the board.
Tap a card or pill to move it to the centre.
What it means
- 1
Oil rose 3.82 percent to 103.27 while headline CPI stood at 3.7%, up from 3.4%, on its September reading. Energy is the likeliest channel for headline inflation, and the CPI release on 2026-11-10 is the next check.
- 2
Equities and volatility moved inversely: the S&P 500 gained 0.70 percent and the VIX fell 4.78 percent to 18.52. The VIX is still up 24.55 percent over the month.
- 3
The 10Y yield sat at 4.99 percent, down 2.92 percent on the week, while the 2s10s spread held at 0.31pp and read as normal. Long yields have eased without changing the shape of the curve.
- 4
The dollar index rose 0.19 percent to 102.00 while gold fell 1.29 percent. This is the usual opposite pairing, though the one-day moves are small.
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
The whole board
This system's own composite of up to seven stored inputs, 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), not CNN's index (work item #699). Extreme greed is not favourable and extreme fear is not unfavourable. Both ends of the bands (25 and 75, the cut points CNN publishes) are flagged; the middle is neutral.
Inflation
Year over year, read against the Federal Reserve's two percent goal. Moving away from it in either direction is the material move, so a fall is not automatically favourable.
Excluding food and energy. Same distance-to-target rule as headline CPI.
The price index the Federal Reserve's two percent goal is actually written against, which CPI is not. Same distance-to-target rule as the CPI tiles: moving away from two percent in either direction is the material move.
Excluding food and energy. The single number most often described as the one the Federal Reserve watches.
Labour
Half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. A rise is unfavourable. The Sahm rule reads a 0.5 point rise off the recent low as a recession marker in real time.
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
Average hourly pay across all private employees. A rise is a gain for households and a cost that feeds inflation, so no favourable direction is asserted here.
Rates and policy
The effective overnight rate, which is where policy actually is. A policy setting is neither favourable nor unfavourable by itself, so this tile takes no colour.
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
Growth
Real gross domestic product, year over year, published quarterly. It is the slowest reading on this page by a wide margin, so it carries no daily, weekly or monthly change.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly survey of manufacturers in its own district: the share reporting higher activity minus the share reporting lower. Above zero is expansion in that district. One region, not the national ISM index, which is licensed and not shown.
Equities
- 7,676.77+0.70%
- 26,169.38+0.82%
- 52,361.58+0.28%
- 2,786.42+0.38%
- 10,767.30+0.72%
- 25,410.84+0.91%
- 62,189.65-0.80%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7,676.77 | +0.70% | |
| 26,169.38 | +0.82% | |
| 52,361.58 | +0.28% | |
| 2,786.42 | +0.38% | |
| 10,767.30 | +0.72% | |
| 25,410.84 | +0.91% | |
| 62,189.65 | -0.80% |
Commodities
No green or red here. A rise in any of these is a gain for one side of the economy and a cost to the other, so the page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 101.76-1.46%
- 4,038.40+0.76%
- 6.51+0.49%
- 2.60-1.44%
- 455.00-0.22%
- 616.00-1.44%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 101.76 | -1.46% | |
| 4,038.40 | +0.76% | |
| 6.51 | +0.49% | |
| 2.60 | -1.44% | |
| 455.00 | -0.22% | |
| 616.00 | -1.44% |
Major currency pairs
No green or red here. Every pair is one currency against another, so a move is favourable for one side and costly to the other, and a stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad while it cheapens imports at home. The page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 1.1218+0.18%
- 156.830-0.01%
- 1.3378+0.05%
- 0.7030-0.12%
- 1.4013+0.05%
- 0.8238-0.17%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1218 | +0.18% | |
| 156.830 | -0.01% | |
| 1.3378 | +0.05% | |
| 0.7030 | -0.12% | |
| 1.4013 | +0.05% | |
| 0.8238 | -0.17% |