Global Macro Dashboard, Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Published Oct 27, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
On October 27 Sentiment composite stood at 34, up 5, which reads as neutral territory. On the heat map, equities scored favourable, rates showed no clear direction, inflation made a material move and the dollar showed no clear direction.
Global Macro Dashboard as drawn for the share card of Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
Key drivers, broader context, clearer decisions. Each macro reading carries its own observation period, which is printed on the reading.
Today's relationship
2s10s Spread
The desk's picture of the day is built around 2s10s Spread.
What we measured
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
One step away
The question
Today's theme: 2s10s Spread.
The desk's picture of the day is built around 2s10s Spread.
Tap a card or pill to move it to the centre.
What it means
- 1
The dollar index rose 0.35 percent to 102.31 while EUR/USD fell 0.74 percent and USD/JPY rose 0.69 percent. The dollar's gain is broad across the major pairs, and the index sits at the 99th percentile of its stored history.
- 2
Equities rose as volatility eased: the S&P 500 gained 0.60 percent while the VIX fell 4.02 percent to 17.65. The Russell 2000 gained 1.16 percent, so the advance reached smaller companies as well as the large indices.
- 3
Oil fell 1.46 percent to 101.76 while headline CPI stood at 3.7% on its September reading, up from 3.4%. Crude remains above 100, so energy stays the likeliest link to headline inflation ahead of the CPI release on 2026-11-10.
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
The whole board
This system's own composite of up to seven stored inputs, 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), not CNN's index (work item #699). Extreme greed is not favourable and extreme fear is not unfavourable. Both ends of the bands (25 and 75, the cut points CNN publishes) are flagged; the middle is neutral.
Inflation
Year over year, read against the Federal Reserve's two percent goal. Moving away from it in either direction is the material move, so a fall is not automatically favourable.
Excluding food and energy. Same distance-to-target rule as headline CPI.
The price index the Federal Reserve's two percent goal is actually written against, which CPI is not. Same distance-to-target rule as the CPI tiles: moving away from two percent in either direction is the material move.
Excluding food and energy. The single number most often described as the one the Federal Reserve watches.
Labour
Half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. A rise is unfavourable. The Sahm rule reads a 0.5 point rise off the recent low as a recession marker in real time.
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
Average hourly pay across all private employees. A rise is a gain for households and a cost that feeds inflation, so no favourable direction is asserted here.
Rates and policy
The effective overnight rate, which is where policy actually is. A policy setting is neither favourable nor unfavourable by itself, so this tile takes no colour.
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
Growth
Real gross domestic product, year over year, published quarterly. It is the slowest reading on this page by a wide margin, so it carries no daily, weekly or monthly change.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly survey of manufacturers in its own district: the share reporting higher activity minus the share reporting lower. Above zero is expansion in that district. One region, not the national ISM index, which is licensed and not shown.
Equities
- 7,722.60+0.60%
- 26,477.81+1.18%
- 52,377.57+0.03%
- 2,818.87+1.16%
- 10,686.50-0.75%
- 25,590.77+0.71%
- 63,268.37+1.73%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7,722.60 | +0.60% | |
| 26,477.81 | +1.18% | |
| 52,377.57 | +0.03% | |
| 2,818.87 | +1.16% | |
| 10,686.50 | -0.75% | |
| 25,590.77 | +0.71% | |
| 63,268.37 | +1.73% |
Commodities
No green or red here. A rise in any of these is a gain for one side of the economy and a cost to the other, so the page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 99.90-1.83%
- 4,074.60+0.90%
- 6.62+1.75%
- 2.70+3.65%
- 448.75-1.37%
- 610.25-0.93%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 99.90 | -1.83% | |
| 4,074.60 | +0.90% | |
| 6.62 | +1.75% | |
| 2.70 | +3.65% | |
| 448.75 | -1.37% | |
| 610.25 | -0.93% |
Major currency pairs
No green or red here. Every pair is one currency against another, so a move is favourable for one side and costly to the other, and a stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad while it cheapens imports at home. The page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 1.1174-0.39%
- 157.528+0.45%
- 1.3345-0.24%
- 0.7019-0.15%
- 1.4013+0.00%
- 0.8275+0.45%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1174 | -0.39% | |
| 157.528 | +0.45% | |
| 1.3345 | -0.24% | |
| 0.7019 | -0.15% | |
| 1.4013 | +0.00% | |
| 0.8275 | +0.45% |