Global Macro Dashboard, Thursday, November 5, 2026
Published Nov 5, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
On November 5 Sentiment composite stood at 38, up 6, which reads as neutral territory. On the heat map, equities scored unfavourable, rates showed no clear direction, inflation made a material move and the dollar showed no clear direction.
Global Macro Dashboard as drawn for the share card of Thursday, November 5, 2026. The same picture is on its share card.
Key drivers, broader context, clearer decisions. Each macro reading carries its own observation period, which is printed on the reading.
Today's relationship
10Y Yield
The desk's picture of the day is built around 10Y Yield.
What we measured
A rise is unfavourable for valuations and can equally be a growth signal. No favourable direction is asserted here.
The 10Y yield stood at 4.84%, down from 4.89% the prior close.
One step away
The question
Does the one-day drop in the S&P 500 alongside a lower 10Y yield, with the Fed funds rate unchanged, show equities and rates moving together on a risk-off day?
Tap a card or pill to move it to the centre.
What it means
The equity selloff came with a lower 10Y yield, and the VIX at 27.78 sits at the 99th percentile of its stored history, so falling yields coincided with stress in stocks. The Fed funds rate at 3.88% was unchanged as of 2026-11-03, so the move in the 10Y yield did not come with a change in the policy rate. The Dollar Index moved only 0.10% to 101.61, so the currency showed little reaction.
Conclusion
The readings show equities and the 10Y yield falling together on the day, but they do not show why, since policy rate and dollar were essentially unchanged.
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
The whole board
This system's own composite of up to seven stored inputs, 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), not CNN's index (work item #699). Extreme greed is not favourable and extreme fear is not unfavourable. Both ends of the bands (25 and 75, the cut points CNN publishes) are flagged; the middle is neutral.
Inflation
Year over year, read against the Federal Reserve's two percent goal. Moving away from it in either direction is the material move, so a fall is not automatically favourable.
Excluding food and energy. Same distance-to-target rule as headline CPI.
The price index the Federal Reserve's two percent goal is actually written against, which CPI is not. Same distance-to-target rule as the CPI tiles: moving away from two percent in either direction is the material move.
Excluding food and energy. The single number most often described as the one the Federal Reserve watches.
Labour
Half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. A rise is unfavourable. The Sahm rule reads a 0.5 point rise off the recent low as a recession marker in real time.
Total jobs on non-farm payrolls, in thousands. The monthly change is the print that moves markets; the level is here so the change has something to sit on.
Average hourly pay across all private employees. A rise is a gain for households and a cost that feeds inflation, so no favourable direction is asserted here.
Rates and policy
The effective overnight rate, which is where policy actually is. A policy setting is neither favourable nor unfavourable by itself, so this tile takes no colour.
Ten year minus two year. The re-steepening after an inversion has historically coincided with the downturn rather than the inversion itself, so a rising spread is not favourable.
Growth
Real gross domestic product, year over year, published quarterly. It is the slowest reading on this page by a wide margin, so it carries no daily, weekly or monthly change.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly survey of manufacturers in its own district: the share reporting higher activity minus the share reporting lower. Above zero is expansion in that district. One region, not the national ISM index, which is licensed and not shown.
Equities
- 7,353.73-4.36%
- 24,315.00-5.52%
- 51,523.06-3.44%
- 2,729.89-4.45%
- 10,782.70-0.43%
- 26,325.01-0.43%
- 61,077.90-1.79%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7,353.73 | -4.36% | |
| 24,315.00 | -5.52% | |
| 51,523.06 | -3.44% | |
| 2,729.89 | -4.45% | |
| 10,782.70 | -0.43% | |
| 26,325.01 | -0.43% | |
| 61,077.90 | -1.79% |
Commodities
No green or red here. A rise in any of these is a gain for one side of the economy and a cost to the other, so the page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 90.52+2.72%
- 4,113.50+0.99%
- 6.25-2.41%
- 2.95-0.41%
- 440.00-0.96%
- 599.25+0.13%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 90.52 | +2.72% | |
| 4,113.50 | +0.99% | |
| 6.25 | -2.41% | |
| 2.95 | -0.41% | |
| 440.00 | -0.96% | |
| 599.25 | +0.13% |
Major currency pairs
No green or red here. Every pair is one currency against another, so a move is favourable for one side and costly to the other, and a stronger dollar tightens conditions abroad while it cheapens imports at home. The page shows direction and size and asserts no favourable direction.
- 1.1235+0.25%
- 158.357-0.07%
- 1.3477+0.32%
- 0.7004+0.52%
- 1.3972-0.24%
- 0.8165-0.35%
| Instrument | Close | 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1235 | +0.25% | |
| 158.357 | -0.07% | |
| 1.3477 | +0.32% | |
| 0.7004 | +0.52% | |
| 1.3972 | -0.24% | |
| 0.8165 | -0.35% |