Macro desk · Morning edition · Monday, August 24, 2026
The US economy remains a late-cycle expansion with the Fed on hold, not easing — steady policy meeting sticky inflation and a labor market cooling gradually rather than cracking. Core CPI at 2.5% and headline at 3.3% keep the Fed anchored at a 3.63% funds rate even as unemployment ticks down to 4.1%. Financial conditions stay historically loose and credit keeps expanding, but the 10y-2y curve steepening to 0.50pp confirms the late-cycle signal is still building.
Prices in this edition were taken live, not from stored closes. They were read at the Morning edition slot on Monday, August 24, 2026. Anything named as a cause may come from a headline the desk was given.
- Core CPI at 2.5% still anchors the Fed at 3.63% even as unemployment eases to 4.1%, a slow-cool not a crack.
- Bank credit expanded $122.9B in a month and deposits rose $168.1B, signaling the banking system keeps financing growth.
- C&I loans slipped $5.7B over four weeks but are up $39.7B over 13, a pause rather than a credit pullback.
- The 10Y Treasury Yield eased to 4.72% into Jackson Hole, sliding off the 4.74% high hit five sessions ago.
- The 10y-2y curve steepened another 0.14pp to 0.50pp this month, the classic late-cycle re-steepening pattern.
- The has broken down to 98.92, down 2.52% over the month and testing fresh lows into the Warsh speech.
- CNN Fear & Greed sits at 55 (greed), cooling slightly from 58 a week ago but far above 41 a month back.
- The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index at -0.829 shows calm well below average, consistent with loose conditions.
- jumped 4.69% Monday to 15.84 but remains 14.75% lower on the month — a jolt, not a stress regime change.
- This is still a late-cycle expansion with the Fed on hold, not a tightening or recessionary regime.
- Loose financial conditions and expanding bank credit argue for continued risk-taking, but curve steepening is the signal to watch.
- Jackson Hole (Warsh's first address as chair), the Sept 4 jobs report and Sept 11 CPI are the pivotal catalysts this week and next.
Yields drifted down to 4.72% into Jackson Hole as markets await Warsh's first policy signal as chair.
The dollar's steady monthly slide to 98.92 reflects the same rate uncertainty driving Treasury yields lower.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-08-24 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- S&P 5007,652.86-0.28%2026-08-24
- CPI Inflation3.4%+0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Core CPI2.4%-0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Unemployment Rate4.1%+0.02026-08-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.002026-08-24
- 2s10s Spread0.46pp-0.04normal2026-08-24
- VIX15.85+4.76%2026-08-24
- 10Y Yield4.70%-0.72%2026-08-24
- Dollar Index99.00+0.20%2026-08-24
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.