Macro desk · Evening edition · Friday, August 28, 2026
The US economy remains a late-cycle expansion with the Fed on hold, not easing — steady policy meeting sticky inflation and a labor market cooling gradually rather than cracking. Breadth narrowed sharply since the open, with just 75% of tracked indices now above their 50-day average versus 88% earlier, as the 10-year jumped to 4.72% on Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone. Downward revisions to 2025-2026 jobs growth and Bank of America's autumn 'reality check' warning add fresh caution even as headline inflation held steady.
Prices in this edition were taken live, not from stored closes. They were read at the Evening edition slot on Friday, August 28, 2026. Anything named as a cause may come from a headline the desk was given.
- Jobs growth for 2025-2026 was revised lower, extending a string of downward payroll adjustments ahead of Friday's report.
- Bank of America warned of an autumn 'reality check,' citing midterm elections and a possible Iran conflict wind-down as catalysts.
- Steady inflation data still gives the Fed room to hold its 3.63% funds rate rather than cut.
- The 10-year yield jumped to 4.72%, its highest since August 21, breaking out of its recent 4.63-4.72% range on Warsh's hawkish tone.
- The Dollar Index climbed to 99.67, snapping back above its August 19 low near 98.80.
- Breadth deteriorated fast: only 75% of tracked indices sit above their 50-day average, down 13 points since the last edition.
- eased again to 14.41, extending its slide from 15.72 when first flagged and now down 8.33% over that span.
- Fear & Greed sits at 54, essentially flat and still neutral despite today's yield spike and small-cap selloff.
- Financial stress stays deeply calm at -0.811 even as small caps (, -1.39%) took the brunt of the rate move.
- Rate markets are repricing hawkish while credit-stress gauges stay calm — a tension worth watching into next week's payrolls.
- Narrowing breadth alongside BofA's autumn caution argues for more selectivity, not broad risk-taking, near term.
- Salesforce's rally to $256, up 9.4% since first flagged, shows software strength persisting even as broad tech () slides.
The 10-year broke its August range, jumping to 4.72% as Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone repriced the rate path.
The dollar rebounded to 99.67 off its August 19 low near 98.80 as hawkish Fed talk lifted yields alongside it.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-08-28 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- S&P 5007,711.76-0.25%2026-08-28
- CPI Inflation3.4%+0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Core CPI2.4%-0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Unemployment Rate4.1%+0.02026-08-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.002026-08-28
- 2s10s Spread0.39pp-0.08normal2026-08-28
- VIX14.43-0.55%2026-08-28
- 10Y Yield4.72%+1.03%2026-08-28
- Dollar Index99.70+0.54%2026-08-28
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.