Macro desk · Evening edition · Friday, September 11, 2026
The US economy remains a late-cycle expansion with the Fed on hold, not easing — steady policy meeting sticky inflation and a labor market cooling gradually rather than cracking. This morning's August CPI ran hot (0.4% headline, 0.2% core), reinforcing sticky inflation and testing the Fed's credibility even as the S&P 500 rallied 0.86% through the print. The 10-year yield pushed to 4.97 on a failed Treasury buyback while the VIX unwound another 11.10% to 15.86, even as Fear & Greed sank to 33 from 45 a week ago.
Prices in this edition were taken live, not from stored closes. They were read at the Evening edition slot on Friday, September 11, 2026. Anything named as a cause may come from a headline the desk was given.
- Hot August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.2% core) confirms sticky inflation, pressuring the Fed's hold and testing Warsh's credibility.
- Bank credit grew $91.2B this month even as C&I loans slipped $5.8B, a bifurcated but still-expansionary credit backdrop.
- Unemployment holds flat at 4.1%, a labor market still cooling gradually rather than validating recession fear.
- The 10-year yield pushed to 4.97, its fourth straight advance, confirming the sell-off since the failed 30-year auction.
- The 10y2y curve sits at just 0.39pp and keeps compressing (-0.09 over the month) even as the long end sells off.
- The dollar index ticked to 99.13 from 98.77 on Tuesday, tracking higher yields rather than pricing in Fed easing.
- plunged another 11.10% to 15.86, now down 1.80% since first flagged at 16.15 despite the hot CPI print.
- Fear & Greed keeps falling, now 33, down from 45 a week ago and 60 a month ago — vol and sentiment diverging further.
- Financial stress keeps easing toward -0.788, showing no systemic alarm even as the CPI surprised to the upside.
- Hot CPI is repricing rates, not equities: the 10-year yield is up 2.85% since 4.84 a week ago while stocks rally.
- Equities rallying through a hot print ( +0.86%) argues the vol/sentiment gap resolves toward calm, not fear.
- Late-cycle expansion still holds, but rising yields and a failed buyback mark the fiscal side as the real pressure point.
The 10-year's climb to 4.97 tracks hot CPI and a failed Treasury buyback, the real driver behind today's rate move.
The dollar's grind to 99.13 tracks the yield surge, not a Fed-easing story — currency following rates, not leading them.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-09-11 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- CPI Inflation3.4%+0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Core CPI2.4%-0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Unemployment Rate4.2%+0.12026-09-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.002026-09-11
- 2s10s Spread0.33pp-0.06normal2026-09-11
- VIX15.84-11.21%2026-09-11
- S&P 5007,656.98+0.86%2026-09-11
- 10Y Yield4.97%+0.63%2026-09-11
- Dollar Index99.12+0.03%2026-09-11
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.