Macro desk · Evening edition · Wednesday, September 16, 2026
The US economy remains a late-cycle expansion with the Fed holding rates rather than cutting them, a stance unchanged even as this week's policy meeting passed without any dovish pivot. Breadth has now collapsed entirely — zero of the eight tracked indices sit above their 50-day average, down from 13% last edition — while the VIX flipped up 2.56% on the day and financials sank 1.62% on Bank of America's weak fee outlook.
Prices in this edition were taken live, not from stored closes. They were read at the Evening edition slot on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Anything named as a cause may come from a headline the desk was given.
- Fed funds holds at 3.63%, but the 10-year crossed 5.01% today, its highest close this cycle.
- The 10y2y spread sits at 0.33pp, unchanged from last edition, still a flattening bias rather than a reversal.
- The Dollar Index broke through 100 to 100.30, up 0.65% on the day, tightening dollar-priced financial conditions further.
- CPI at 3.4%, core at 2.4% and unemployment at 4.1% are all unchanged, with the next reads 16 and 28 days out.
- J.B. Hunt's warning that Q3 earnings will miss estimates by 5-10% points to softening freight demand, a real-economy growth signal.
- The inventory-to-sales ratio holds at 1.30, no fresh evidence stock is piling up faster than it can be sold.
- Financial conditions (-0.560) and the stress index (-0.788) stay looser than average, unmoved by today's equity slide.
- Bank credit and deposits keep expanding, up $255.7B and $281B over thirteen weeks, no funding-base stress evident despite the financials selloff.
- The Employment Situation lands in 16 days (Oct 2) and CPI in 28 (Oct 14), nothing scheduled inside the next five sessions.
- With no fresh data due this week, today's slide is driven by earnings warnings and Fed-decision follow-through, not a new macro print.
- Breadth at 0% above the 50-day average alongside a rising (17.64, +2.56%) signals broad-based risk aversion, not a single-sector story.
- Tightening from a 5.01% 10-year and a dollar above 100 still outweighs loose credit conditions, making the expansion costlier to finance.
- Energy's slide to a two-month low even as crude tops $105 shows equity risk aversion overriding the commodity's own signal.
The dollar broke above the 100 handle to 100.30, its steepest one-day gain since August, on rate-hold bets and oil-driven haven demand.
The 10-year closed at 5.01%, its highest level this cycle, adding to financing costs just as the Fed held rates.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-09-16 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- Fear and Greed26neutral territory2026-09-16
- VIX17.71+2.97%2026-09-16
- S&P 5007,551.81-0.45%2026-09-16
- CPI Inflation3.4%+0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Core CPI2.4%-0.0flat against 2%2026-08-01
- Unemployment Rate4.2%+0.12026-09-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.002026-09-16
- 2s10s Spread0.27pp-0.06normal2026-09-16
- 10Y Yield5.01%+0.20%2026-09-16
- Dollar Index100.31+0.66%2026-09-16
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.