Macro desk · Evening edition · Thursday, October 29, 2026
Alphabet and ServiceNow were sold on AI spending doubts while credit stayed cheap, so the day's equity pain was about earnings, not a tighter economy.
The 10-year minus 2-year spread rose 9 basis points on October 28, 4.5 times its typical daily move.
Drawn from the numbers stored with this edition; the same picture is on its share card.
The morning edition's card drew the same chart from its own numbers, written Oct 29, 2026, 9:34 AM EDT. Show it.
The 10-year minus 2-year spread rose 9 basis points on October 28, 4.5 times its typical daily move.
The picture on the morning edition's share card, drawn from the numbers stored with that edition, written Oct 29, 2026, 9:34 AM EDT. The evening edition above replaced it as this day's latest edition.
Money is staying expensive while the economy keeps growing, and today's session mostly fit that picture. The 10-year yield closed near 4.99 after touching 5.05 yesterday, still close to the top of its October range. The day's damage was concentrated in a few large growth names, with the Nasdaq down and the up. Nothing given ties the small dip in yields to a specific cause.
Here is the mechanism. A central bank slows an economy by making borrowing dearer, but the brake only works if lenders and borrowers feel it. Credit is flowing: the high-yield spread was 3.14 points on October 28, so lenders charge little extra for risk. Today's selloffs in ServiceNow and were about AI spending and software doubts, per CNBC, not about funding. That is why equities and the macro data are telling different stories.
For households, long-term borrowing tends to follow the 10-year yield, so relief depends on that yield falling, and today's small dip does not change that. The next test is the jobs report in 8 days, which updates the 4.2% unemployment rate. CPI follows in 12 days and updates headline inflation of 3.7%. Firm readings would keep pressure on rates, softer ones would ease it.
- The 10-year closed at 4.99 after 5.05 yesterday, so long borrowing remains costly and near the top of its October range.
- The 10-year minus 2-year spread was 0.38 points on October 28, a positive slope with no inversion signal.
- The dollar index slipped to 101.94 today, a small move that added little pressure on rates either way.
- Third-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% against 2.2% in the second quarter shows an economy still accelerating despite a 3.88% policy rate.
- Headline CPI at 3.7% against core at 2.6% leaves energy doing much of the inflation work, and both are September readings.
- The 10-year breakeven rose to 2.38% on October 28, so bond markets price modest long-run inflation despite firm headline prices.
- The high-yield spread narrowed to 3.14 points on October 28, so lenders still charge little extra for risk.
- Financial stress at -0.58 and conditions at -0.49 as of October 23 are looser than average, consistent with fast growth.
- Bank credit rose 101.1 billion dollars and deposits 238.2 billion over four weeks, so the banking system is expanding, not retrenching.
- The Employment Situation report is 8 days away, on November 6, and would update the 4.2% unemployment rate.
- CPI is 12 days away, on November 10, and would update the 3.7% headline and 2.6% core readings.
- reports third-quarter earnings after today's close, with AI spending under scrutiny, per CNBC.
- The regime reads restrictive but expanding: policy rate 3.88%, 10-year near 5%, GDP growth accelerating, and credit still open.
- Equity weakness was narrow and company-specific, so it does not signal a macro tightening shock, and breadth improved to 50%.
- Sentiment composite stood at 39 on October 28, fearful but up from 34, so risk appetite is cautious, not broken.
The 10-year yield dipped back to 4.99 after yesterday's uptick, still well below early-October levels above 5.2.
The dollar index slipped back toward 102, staying inside its narrow October range while yields eased.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-10-29 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- Sentiment composite38-1neutral territory2026-10-29
- VIX17.20+1.71%2026-10-29
- S&P 5007,720.39-0.30%2026-10-29
- 10Y Yield4.99%-1.11%2026-10-29
- Dollar Index102.04-0.15%2026-10-29
- CPI Inflation4.1%+0.4moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Core CPI2.9%+0.3moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Unemployment Rate4.1%-0.12026-10-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.88%+0.002026-10-29
- 2s10s Spread0.37pp-0.01normal2026-10-29
Across the conditions
- The 10-year yield eased to 4.99% from 5.05%, and the 2s10s spread widened to 0.38pp from 0.29pp. The long end fell in yield while the curve steepened, with the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.88%.
- The VIX slipped to 16.46, so the rotation away from large growth came with calmer volatility.
Go deeper
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.