Commodities desk · Evening edition · Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Palladium's third straight weekly slide shows industrial metals losing their footing while oil, held up by Iran headlines, barely moved.
Palladium fell 6 sessions in a row, -10.56% in all, 5.9 times its typical daily move. Palladium had 5 moves of at least 2.97% within 5 sessions, against a typical daily move of 1.49%.
Drawn from the numbers stored with this edition; the same picture is on its share card.
Gasoline fell 12.44% on November 2, 7.8 times its typical daily move. Over the window, Brent crude +32.02% led.
The picture on the morning edition's share card, drawn from the numbers stored with that edition, written Nov 3, 2026, 9:35 AM EST. The evening edition above replaced it as this day's latest edition.
Metals and sugar did the heavy lifting today, while energy held the war-premium story from the morning in a quieter way. Crude finished close to flat after CNBC Top News reported oil climbing on US strikes at Qeshm Island, and Al-Monitor said Trump signalled progress in talks. Diesel was the firm spot in fuels. Palladium, silver and copper all fell harder than crude moved, so industrial and precious metals set the tone for the close. Grains drifted lower, with sugar weakest.
Palladium kept sliding, down about three percent on the day to 16.94 for the abrdn fund, and platinum slipped too. Nothing supplied gives a reason for either, so the move is the news. Diesel climbed to 4.55 even as crude barely moved, which narrows the gap that opened on Monday. In the fields, sugar fell furthest among the softs and coffee gave back more ground. On the rivers, the Rhine at Kaub read 19 cm and the Mississippi at St. Louis stood at 3.8 ft.
Copper lower, grains lower and silver lower all point to cooler demand, while oil keeps a conflict premium that can swing on diplomacy. For anyone holding real assets, inflation protection is coming from fuel, not from industrial metals. Meanwhile strong job openings of 7.52 million and a 10-year yield near 4.95 keep money dear, which tends to weigh on metals that pay no income.
- Diesel rose 2.99% to 4.55 while WTI edged up 0.26% to 96.71, after US strikes on Qeshm Island and talk of progress.
- Brent slipped 0.42% to 104.33 and is down 8.39% on the week, well below last week's highs.
- Natural gas gained 1.72% to 2.90, with storage at 3,724 bcf, 0.4% above its seasonal normal.
- Copper fell 2.50% to 6.40, the weakest growth signal among the metals today.
- Palladium fell 2.98% and is down 20.39% over the month, while platinum lost 1.91%. Nothing supplied explains either move.
- Silver fell 2.31% to 49.71 against gold's 0.94% drop to 3,932.20, so silver again fell harder.
- Sugar fell 3.73% to 18.35, the biggest drop in the grains and softs group, and is down 11.48% on the month.
- Coffee fell 2.76% to 284.05, while corn eased 1.51% with 56% rated good to excellent against a 60% five-year average.
- Wheat fell 1.28% to 598.75 even as winter wheat condition rose 18 points to 44% good to excellent, matching the average.
- Brent at 104.33 sits about 7.6 above WTI at 96.71, a similar gap to the morning.
- Diesel at 4.55 is far above gasoline at 2.95, and diesel gained more as crude held steady.
- Gold-silver ratio widened again, as silver fell more than twice as hard as gold.
- Oil still carries a war premium that moves on each strike or diplomacy headline, so energy exposure has two-way risk.
- Copper, silver and palladium weakness argues for downside-aware sizing in industrial and precious metals.
- Energy, metals and grains are answering different news, so real-asset exposure is several separate bets and not one inflation hedge.
Sugar fell to its lowest level in this window, extending a slide that began after October 23.
Diesel recovered part of Monday's drop, though it remains below late-October levels near 4.9.
Palladium's fund has fallen almost without pause for a month, and today's drop extends it to 16.94.
The numbers behind it
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
- Divergence
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-11-03 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- Broad Commodities (DBC)32.44USD-0.06%
- Gold3,940.40USD/oz-0.74%
- Silver49.587USD/oz-2.23%
- Palladium (PALL)16.94USD-2.98%
- Gold and SilverDivergenceGold against silver: -0.74% against -2.23% today, and the spread between them sits 2.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions.
- Diesel and Heating Oil (ULSD)4.531USD/gal+2.47%
- Gasoline (RBOB)2.935USD/gal+1.22%
- WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline (RBOB)DivergenceCrude against gasoline: -0.38% against +1.22% today, and the spread between them sits 1.9 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions.
- WTI Crude Oil and Diesel and Heating Oil (ULSD)DivergenceCrude against diesel: -0.38% against +2.47% today, and the spread between them sits 2.0 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions.
- US gasoline product supplied+5.4%US gasoline product supplied is 8,808 MBBL/D for the week ending 2026-10-30, +5.4% against 8,358 in the prior published week.2026-10-30
- US distillate inventories-3.5%US distillate inventories is 99,259 MBBL for the week ending 2026-10-30, -3.5% against 102,824 in the prior published week.2026-10-30
- Trucking fuel costfrom Diesel and Heating Oil (ULSD)The trucking and rail paths from diesel are the price of the FUEL and not the price of moving the load. A freight rate is a different number, and where one is drawn on this page it is labelled as a rate.
Across the complex
- Crude and diesel fell by nearly the same percentage, yet the spread between them sits 2.9 standard deviations from its 60 session average. Distillate answers to freight and heating demand, not driving.
- Silver rose 3.31% against gold at 1.81%, a spread 2.5 standard deviations from its 60 session average, while silver is still down 16.67% on the month.
Go deeper
The Commodities desk's own dashboard: what is moving, why, and where it goes next. Open it
The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.