Macro desk · Evening edition · Tuesday, November 10, 2026
The dollar jumped 0.61% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.98% as Waller floated a December hike, so markets now price dearer money ahead, not relief.
The 1-month yield rose 2 basis points on November 9. The 2-year stood at 4.56% and the 10-year at 4.88%.
Drawn from the numbers stored with this edition; the same picture is on its share card.
WTI Crude Oil closed at 86.85, 1.44% below its twenty session low of 88.12. WTI Crude Oil closed at 86.85, 19% of the way from the 60-session low of 82.23 to the high of 105.83.
The picture on the morning edition's share card, drawn from the numbers stored with that edition, written Nov 10, 2026, 9:33 AM EST. The evening edition above replaced it as this day's latest edition.
The regime is tightening, not easing, and the close confirmed it rather than reversed it. Growth is holding up while inflation news keeps coming in firm, so the Fed's next move is being discussed as a hike. CNBC reported that October consumer prices rose 0.4%, more than economists expected, and the 10-year yield finished near 4.98%. Stocks leaned the same way, with the down 0.38% and Technology the weak spot.
Think of the 10-year yield as the price of long-term borrowing, set by where people expect the overnight rate to travel. Fed Governor Waller said he leans toward a December increase and could back a half-point move, per CNBC, so that expected path moved up and the yield followed. The dollar rose 0.61% alongside it, since higher US rates attract capital. Credit has not objected: the high-yield spread was 3.34 points on November 9, a calm reading, and it predates today.
For households already leaning on credit, the squeeze is visible. The New York Fed found card debt at a record $1.29 trillion, CNBC reported, and home equity line balances posted their biggest jump since 2005. Higher policy rates would make that borrowing costlier. One relief came at the pump, where CNBC said gasoline fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since July. The next big test is the December Fed meeting, since the jobs report is 24 days away.
- The 10-year yield closed near 4.98%, up 2.45% on the day, as Waller's December hike signal pushed longer borrowing costs higher.
- The dollar index rose 0.61% to 102.27, reversing Monday's dip and moving in step with higher expected US rates.
- The 10y2y spread was 0.32 points on November 9, still positive, with the policy rate at 3.88% as of November 6.
- October CPI was published today, with CNBC reporting a 0.4% monthly rise, slower than September's pace but still uncomfortably high according to economists it cited.
- The annual CPI rows here still show the prior period, 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, so today's year-over-year figures have not reached this system.
- Unemployment at 4.1% and a business inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.33 describe a growing economy that can absorb firmer policy.
- Chicago Fed conditions at -0.46 and St. Louis stress at -0.52 as of October 30 read looser than average, and both are unchanged here.
- The high-yield spread was 3.34 points on November 9, down from 3.48 on November 5, so credit was calm before today's move.
- October CPI was published today with a 0.4% monthly rise reported by CNBC, and the annual figures here remain September's.
- The Employment Situation report is 24 days away, on December 4, so no jobs data lands in the next five trading days.
- CoreWeave reports after the bell today, and the next policy test is the December Fed meeting.
- The regime is restrictive and leaning tighter, as firm price data meets a Fed governor openly favoring a December hike.
- Growth looks intact, so the policy rate remains the constraint that matters most for risk-taking.
- Fear is easing at the margin, with the at 19.53 down from 26.72 on first flag, but breadth is thin at 38%.
The 10-year yield jumped to 4.98 today after Waller's hike signal, undoing a week of drift lower.
The dollar rebounded to 102.27, erasing Monday's drop as higher expected US rates drew buyers.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-11-10 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- Sentiment composite30+0neutral territory2026-11-10
- VIX19.59-1.66%2026-11-10
- 10Y Yield4.98%+2.45%2026-11-10
- Dollar Index102.26+0.60%2026-11-10
- CPI Inflation4.1%+0.4moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Core CPI2.9%+0.3moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Unemployment Rate4.1%-0.12026-10-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.88%+0.002026-11-06
- 2s10s Spread0.32pp-0.03normal2026-11-09
- S&P 5007,520.93-0.38%2026-11-10
Across the conditions
- The 10Y yield rose by 12 basis points in a day while the Fed funds rate stayed at 3.88%, so the move came from the long end and not from policy. The 2s10s spread is on 2026-11-09 and the 10Y yield is on 2026-11-10, so they are not measured on the same day.
- The readings do not yet answer whether the higher 10Y yield is pressing on volatility, since the VIX slipped while the yield rose and the spread reading is a day older.
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.