Market Pulse
Commodity Explorer, Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Published Nov 10, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
What is moving inside the physical commodity economy, why it may be moving, and where the effect goes next. Tap a commodity to move. Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day.
Colour marks direction only. A commodity rising is a cost to whoever buys it and revenue to whoever sells it, so nothing here is drawn as good or bad news.
You are looking at
Wheat
Flour and bread. Substitutes for corn in feed at the margin.
- Wheat-7.7%
Stored daily closes.
3 of 4 grains names moved today, the largest being Soybeans at +3.76%. Divergence is the relationship worth reading here.
US Corn Belt temperature 100th percentileUS Corn Belt temperature sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much hotter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-11-04. Mean daily maximum temperature over the same window and the same ranking, which is the heat-stress half of a yield reading.
Black Sea rainfall 100th percentileBlack Sea rainfall sits in the 100th percentile of the same calendar window in earlier years, much wetter than typical for the time of year, for the window ending 2026-11-04. The wheat export belt. This is the growing condition only: nothing in this system holds an export or shipping record for it.
Managed-money net is -16.3% of open interest as of Tuesday 2026-11-03, down 2.1 points on the week: an ordinary week by its own history. Positioning, never a physical driver.
CFTC report, published weekly: context and not a same-session cause.
Corn against wheat: Diverging, 1.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat. Corn +1.99% against Wheat +0.60% on the session.
Top to bottom: Upstream driver, Commodity, Where it goes
- Common driver
- Upstream driver
- Physical flow
- Divergence
Consumer Staples fund (XLP): +0.15% on 2026-11-10. It is the sector end of the Sector Supply Lines path Wheat and soybeans to staples, a stored link that is not a measured one. A sector fund stands for the nearest listed buyers and is not a measured link.
The dollar index moved -0.02% on the session (close of 2026-11-10). Macro context, not tested against this market.
Divergence. Corn against soybeans: +1.99% against +3.76% today, and the spread between them sits 1.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. The two compete for the same acres, so a lasting difference is a planting decision.
Divergence. Corn against wheat: +1.99% against +0.60% today, and the spread between them sits 1.6 standard deviations from its own average over the last 60 stored sessions. Substitutable in feed rations at the margin, so a wide spread changes what livestock eat.
The downstream column stops at the first physical use. Where a cost travels after that, through industries and equity sectors, is Sector Supply Lines' subject and not this page's.
Upstream
Pairs
Downstream
Trades against
Who buys it
Every commodity
Energy
Metals
Grains
Livestock
Softs
Broad basket
- 1
Crude and gasoline fell by nearly the same amount, yet their spread is 1.6 standard deviations from its 60 session average. Gasoline is down 16.48% over a month against 3.59% for WTI.
- 2
Natural gas rose 7.34% while crude and gasoline fell more than 4%, so the energy group split with gas alone moving against the others.
- 3
Cattle and hogs both rose, but hogs are still down 21.36% over a month against 3.80% for cattle, and their spread is 2.4 deviations from its average.
What it costs to move it
- Long-distance truckload219.38+4.55%What long-haul truckload carriers actually charged. This is the rate side of the trucking path, where the diesel price is the fuel side.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Truck transportation, all222.21+3.66%The broader trucking read. It and the truckload index moving apart separates the long-haul contract market from everything else on the road.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Freight arrangement136.40.00%The intermediary's price. It typically moves ahead of the carrier indexes, because a broker reprices a load in a day and a contract carrier reprices at renewal.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Line-haul railroads272.4+0.04%The billed-rate read on rail, which the weekly grain shuttle rate above is the grain-specific and faster-moving half of.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Rail freight, commodity basis159.18+0.04%A second rail rate built a different way. Where it and the line-haul industry index agree, the rail reading is not an artefact of one construction.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
- Shuttle rail, grain128-1.54%What a grain shipper actually pays for a shuttle railcar, indexed against the 2017 average of $4,833.14 a car.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Illinois River barge, grain221.39-0.96%The inland waterway leg between the Corn Belt and the Gulf export elevators, which is the cheapest and the most weather-exposed of the three inland modes.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- US Gulf to Japan, grain vessel190.06-2.29%The seaborne leg of a Gulf export cargo. A grain rate on a grain route, and not a general dry bulk or container rate.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Pacific Northwest to Japan, grain vessel187.65+2.60%The shorter export route, which is why its level sits well under the Gulf one and why the two parting company is a routing story rather than a freight one.index, 2017 = 100, published weekly, observation of 2026-11-04, measured against 2026-10-28. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Grain Transportation Report.
- Deep sea freight534.8+0.39%The only seaborne rate here that is not grain-specific. Monthly and indexed, so it carries the direction of ocean freight and never a quotable rate.index, published monthly, observation of 2026-09-01, measured against 2026-08-01. US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, retrieved from FRED.
USDA's rates cover grain and refrigerated produce, which makes them a directional read on US inland bulk freight rather than a rate for metals, energy or containers. The BLS indexes are national and monthly, so they carry direction and not a quotable price.
No free public container spot index, dry bulk index or tanker rate is published, so a containerised leg and a seaborne bulk leg outside grain carry the diesel price as the cost of the fuel and never as a rate.
Freight rates for grain are published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Across the complexes, macro context and what was refused
- Industrial demand4 of the 4 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Platinum at -2.11%. That is consistent with softer industrial and manufacturing demand, though copper on its own is not a growth indicator.from Copper, Platinum, Palladium, WTI
- Haven demand2 of the 2 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Silver at -1.97%. That is consistent with softer haven and monetary demand, which gold alone does not establish.from Gold, Silver
- Transportation fuel cost3 of the 3 names moving in this theme fell today, the largest being Diesel at -1.46%. That is consistent with falling transport FUEL costs, which is a different number from a billed freight rate and is measured here from fuel prices alone.from WTI, Gasoline, Diesel
- US Dollar Index102.26-0.02%
- 10Y Treasury4.98%+2.55%
- Sentiment composite30+24.14%
Secondary on purpose. These interpret the commodities above; they do not lead them.
Reading the diagrams
- Physical flowOne is physically transformed into, or directly contributes to, the other.
- DivergenceRelated markets behaving differently by more than their own recent history accounts for.
- ConvergenceA difference that had opened between two related markets is closing again.
- ConfirmationRelated markets moving in broadly the same direction.
- SubstitutionThe two can stand in for one another in some physical or economic use.
- Common driverBoth are being read against the same stored upstream measurement.
Commodities - % change
Click a name in the legend to show or hide it. Prices from Yahoo Finance.