Macro desk · Evening edition · Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Stocks rebounded and the VIX fell, but the 10-year yield held at 5.00%, so bond investors still price dearer money despite equity relief.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread fell 0.07 percentage points to +0.25, 3.5 times its typical daily change. The Treasury curve flattened between November 3 and November 10, with the 30-year minus 2-year spread narrowing by 9 basis points. The 1-year yield moved the most, up 16 basis points, to 4.56% on November 10.
Drawn from the numbers stored with this edition; the same picture is on its share card.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread fell 0.07 percentage points to +0.25, 3.5 times its typical daily change. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is +0.25 percentage points on November 10, and has not been below zero in the 261 sessions shown.
The picture on the morning edition's share card, drawn from the numbers stored with that edition, written Nov 11, 2026, 9:34 AM EST. The evening edition above replaced it as this day's latest edition.
The session did not change the regime: money is still dear, and today's relief was in equities, not in rates. Technology led a broad recovery and the fell, yet the 10-year yield finished at 5.00% and the dollar index rose again. Policy is restrictive, with inflation firm and growth holding. A rebound in a month-long drawdown is not the same as easier conditions, and the bond market did not agree that conditions had eased.
Here is the connection worth watching. Stocks are priced off future cash flows, and a 5.00% yield raises the bar those cash flows must clear. Yet the equity bounce widened by the close, and breadth across tracked indices rose from 38% to 50% above their 50-day averages. The dollar's gain fits higher US yields drawing in foreign money. Credit remains the calm part: the high-yield spread was 3.34 points on November 9, so lenders are not demanding extra pay for risk.
For a saver, short Treasury yields stay attractive, with the 3-month at 4.30%, while the effective policy rate sits at 3.88%. For an importer or anyone holding foreign currency, a firmer dollar changes costs in the other direction. Nothing scheduled lands inside five trading days. The next firm tests are the jobs report on December 4 and CPI on December 10, which would update unemployment and inflation.
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00%, edging up from 4.98% on Tuesday, so long-term borrowing costs stay high even as stocks recovered.
- The 10y2y spread was 0.25 points on November 10, still positive, and the 3-month yield at 4.30% sits above the 3.88% effective policy rate.
- The dollar index rose 0.70% to 102.94, moving with higher US yields and making imports cheaper for American buyers while pressuring foreign borrowers.
- Headline CPI was 4.1% year over year and core 2.9% as of October 1, so inflation remains above where policy would be comfortable.
- Unemployment of 4.1% and a business inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.33 describe an economy still absorbing firm policy without visible stress.
- The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed October retail sales at their slowest pace in nearly a year, so household spending is growing but losing momentum.
- Chicago Fed conditions at -0.46 and St. Louis stress at -0.52, both as of October 30, read looser than average and are unchanged.
- Bank credit rose 130.1 billion dollars over four weeks to October 28 and deposits rose 103.8 billion, so the lending system is expanding.
- The high-yield spread of 3.34 points on November 9 shows credit is calm, matching resilient growth despite dearer money.
- No scheduled release falls inside the next five trading days, so the 5.00% yield is driven by existing data.
- The Employment Situation report is 23 days away, on December 4, and would move the 4.1% unemployment reading.
- CPI is 29 days away, on December 10, and would update the headline and core inflation rows.
- The regime is restrictive and expanding slowly: dear money, firm inflation, calm credit, so risk-taking still faces a high yield hurdle.
- Today's equity rebound sits inside a month-long drawdown in Technology, and the 5.00% 10-year is the constraint to watch.
The dollar index climbed to 102.94, its highest in this window, moving with higher US yields.
The 10-year yield is back at 5.00% after dipping to 4.84% on November 5.
The numbers behind it
Macro heat map
Rates, USD, Commodities and Inflation are never green and never red: each is favourable for one part of the economy and costly to another, so those cells show only whether the move was material.
Every move here is measured between two stored daily closes, so the reading belongs to a session rather than to a time of day. This block is cut at the 2026-11-11 session. Anything named as a driver comes from a stored series and never from a headline.
- Sentiment composite32+4neutral territory2026-11-11
- S&P 5007,619.38+1.31%2026-11-11
- 10Y Yield5.00%+0.30%2026-11-11
- Dollar Index102.93+0.69%2026-11-11
- CPI Inflation4.1%+0.4moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Core CPI2.9%+0.3moving away from 2%2026-10-01
- Unemployment Rate4.1%-0.12026-10-01
- Fed Funds Rate3.88%+0.002026-11-09
- 2s10s Spread0.25pp-0.07normal2026-11-10
- VIX17.52-9.97%2026-11-11
Across the conditions
- The block shows the labor market and the policy rate side by side but does not show one driving the other.
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The desk voices are written by AI, not by human reporters. Every figure is taken from the listed market, sensor and headline data, and an automated check flags any figure or quoted source that is not.