Conservative

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT

   Cash 35%Treasuries 35%Equities 20%Commodities 10%

   First rebalance under a capital-preservation mandate: financial stress is up sharply (+0.38 over 4 weeks) and financial conditions have tightened, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and the 10y-2y curve is re-steepening post-inversion — historically the phase that coincides with downturns, not the inversion itself. Equity breadth is weak (only 38% above 50d MA) and sentiment is fearful (38/100), so I'm cutting equities and commodities to fund a 70% combined cash/treasuries buffer. Splitting the safety allocation between cash and treasuries rather than loading fully into duration, since TLT is down 4.3% on the month as yields rise.