Medium

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 25%Equities 30%Commodities 25%

   TLT jumped 1.10% today as yields fell (TNX -1.38%) and financial conditions/stress indices keep loosening, so we add back to treasuries. DBC fell -1.65% as US sanctions plans on Iran push oil lower, tempering the recent commodity rally, so we trim commodities modestly while keeping it well above the diversification floor. Equities get a small bump given strong breadth (75%/88% above 50/200-day averages) and VIX down another 2.5%, while cash stays flat as the stabilizer.

2. Aug 19, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 23%Equities 29%Commodities 28%

   TLT jumped 1.67% today as yields fell (TNX -1.13%) and Treasury doubled debt buybacks, so we add back to treasuries after three straight trims. Commodities at 32% had grown too concentrated for a balanced sleeve approach despite recent strength, so we trim it back toward 28% while still respecting the Hormuz-tension and ag-cost tailwinds. Equities get a small bump given still-strong breadth (75%/88% above 50/200-day) and VIX collapsing -6.76%, funded partly from cash.”}}}}

3. Aug 17, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 21%Treasuries 20%Equities 27%Commodities 32%

   Commodities keep confirming strength (DBC +1.87% today, Hormuz shipping disruption, sugar/cotton up double digits) while rising yields (TNX +4% 1M, TLT -0.84% today) argue for trimming treasuries further. Equity breadth remains strong but VIX jumped 6.5% today and the S&P is pulling back, so we hold equities roughly flat rather than add. Cash trimmed slightly to fund the commodity tilt while keeping all four sleeves above the diversification floor.

4. Aug 14, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 22%Treasuries 22%Equities 28%Commodities 28%

   Rising 10Y yields (+2.78% 1M) and TLT's -0.67% daily drop argue for trimming treasury exposure, while refinery attacks, a diesel supply crunch, and record gas prices support commodities, which are already up 0.74% today. Equities stay steady given still-strong breadth (88% above 50/200-day averages) despite today's mild pullback. Cash is held flat as a stabilizer amid elevated Fear & Greed (65) readings.

5. Aug 10, 2026, 2:16 AM EDT

   Cash 22%Treasuries 25%Equities 28%Commodities 25%

   Broad market strength (75% of indices above 50-day, 88% above 200-day, Fear&Greed at 64) and positive 1-month gains across major indices support a modest tilt toward equities, funded from cash. Treasuries and commodities are left steady since yields and commodity moves are flat-to-mixed, keeping all sleeves above the 10% floor for diversification.”,