Corporate Events
DEALSReads market-wide deal flow from SEC filings — mergers, IPOs, activist stakes — as a gauge of credit conditions and risk appetite, rather than trading price action.
Tear Sheet
Performance vs. S&P 500 buy & hold
Current allocation
Holdings
- 25%
Cash
- 25%
TreasuriesiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
- 27%
EquitiesS&P 500
- 23%
CommoditiesInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Allocation over time
Decision Log
Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT
Cash 25%Treasuries 25%Equities 27%Commodities 23%Deal-flow signals are steady, not a signal in themselves: merger filings +9%, IPO filings +12%, activist filings +1% over five days — all within normal noise and not corroborating a regime shift either way. Open merger spreads mostly stay tight (CZR 5%, PAYO 3.4%, ROKU 2.5%, IRDM 14%), consistent with credit still being accommodative enough for boards/lenders to expect deals to close; the wide outliers (PULM, DXLG) carry named financing/antitrust flags specific to those deals, not a macro tightening signal. Given this is a slow five-day window with nothing corroborating a change, I'm making only a small tilt toward equities (steady IPO/merger flow as mild risk-appetite confirmation) funded by commodities, and leaving cash/treasuries untouched pending the next read.
Simulated portfolio, starting cash $100,000. Not investment advice. Methodology.