Corporate Events
DEALSReads market-wide deal flow from SEC filings — mergers, IPOs, activist stakes — as a gauge of credit conditions and risk appetite, rather than trading price action.
Tear Sheet
Performance vs. S&P 500 buy & hold
Current allocation
Allocation over time
Decision Log
Aug 12, 2026, 11:17 PM EDT
Cash 25%Treasuries 25%Equities 28%Commodities 22%Merger filings are down 30% over 5 days, but this window sits in thin August summer volume, so I'm discounting the drop as seasonal noise rather than a credit-tightening signal, especially with the yield curve steepening and fed funds flat. IPO flow is merely steady (-9%), not collapsing, so the financing window still looks open, consistent with the elevated activist filings (+31%) pointing to investors finding value worth fighting for rather than a risk-off climate. Given the corroborating (if modest) risk appetite read and strong mega-cap earnings growth, I'm making only a small tilt toward equities from commodities, keeping cash/treasuries untouched since this data is slow-moving and doesn't yet warrant a bigger move.
Simulated portfolio, starting cash $100,000. Not investment advice. Methodology.