Leveraged Momentum

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 25%Treasuries 30%Equities 23%Commodities 22%

   TQQQ bounced +1.83% with VIX down -2.52% and yields falling (TNX -1.38%), a second stabilization signal after last week's break, but breadth is unchanged at 75%/88% so this isn't yet a confirmed reconfirmed uptrend worth chasing hard. Nudging equities up only 3pp from cash as a tentative re-entry, keeping treasuries at 30% since TLT's own +1.10% still reflects a genuine safe-haven/rate-cut bid. Commodities held near current weight despite DBC's -1.65% drop on the Iran sanctions oil news, since underlying refinery/distillate fundamentals remain firmer than the one-day move suggests.

2. Aug 24, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 28%Treasuries 30%Equities 20%Commodities 22%

   TQQQ fell -3.03% today while VIX jumped 4.82%, reversing yesterday's tentative bounce and reconfirming the momentum break from last week — this is not the reconfirmed uptrend needed to lean back in. TLT rose 0.62% as yields fell into the Warsh Jackson Hole speech, so treasuries get the safe-haven add. Commodities hold near current weight despite DBC's -1.02% since oil/product fundamentals (refinery utilization up, distillates drawing) still look more stable than equities' trend. Cutting equities 8pp to cash/treasuries until breadth and price action genuinely confirm strength again.

3. Aug 21, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 24%Treasuries 26%Equities 28%Commodities 22%

   TQQQ bounced +0.98% and VIX fell sharply (-5.37%), a tentative stabilization after the momentum break, but it's a single day and breadth (75%/88%) hasn't fully re-confirmed the uptrend yet, so I'm only nudging equities up 3pp from cash rather than re-leveraging aggressively. Treasuries stay flat given TLT's own -0.35% wobble offers no clear safe-haven signal. Commodities hold at 22% as DBC's steady +0.48% and firming refinery/product data still look like the more consistent trend right now versus equities' one-day bounce.

4. Aug 20, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 27%Treasuries 26%Equities 25%Commodities 22%

   TQQQ dropped another -2.19% today with VIX up 7.25% and breadth softening (75%/88% vs prior reads), confirming the momentum break flagged on 8/18 rather than reversing it — global equity markets (Nikkei -3.16%, Shanghai -2.40%, Dow -1.32%) are broadly risk-off too. Cutting equities another 7pp to cash since TLT is also down -0.82% today and offers no clear safe-haven bid right now. Adding 2pp to commodities as DBC's +1.14% and tightening oil/product data (crude/gasoline inventory builds modest, refinery utilization up, distillates drawing) show a firmer trend than equities currently do. Will look to re-enter TQQQ only once price action and breadth reconfirm an uptrend rather than chasing this bounce.

5. Aug 18, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 28%Equities 32%Commodities 20%

   TQQQ fell -5.07% today with VIX up 4.08%, a clean momentum break after three straight days of leaning in — this is exactly the kind of leveraged-drawdown risk the philosophy exists to avoid, not noise to ride through. Cutting equities by 10pp to cash/treasuries; TLT ticked up 0.38% as yields eased, so treasuries get a modest add as a safer parking spot. Commodities stay put at 20% since DBC's -0.26% is unremarkable and there's no fresh trend signal there. Will look to re-enter equities only once price action reconfirms the uptrend rather than chasing a bounce.

6. Aug 17, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 13%Treasuries 25%Equities 42%Commodities 20%

   TQQQ slipped -0.51% and VIX spiked +6.67% on Hormuz ceasefire and China slowdown headlines, while Fear & Greed eased to 60 from 66 — signs of momentum cooling, not a confirmed trend break. Breadth is still strong (100%/88%), so I'm not slashing equities, just trimming 3pp back to cash after three straight adds, pausing further leverage-up until price action reconfirms the uptrend. Treasuries and commodities are left unchanged; TLT's -0.84% daily move is noise and DBC's oil-driven pop lacks a clear multi-day trend to chase.

7. Aug 13, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 25%Equities 45%Commodities 20%

   TQQQ surged 3.42% today with breadth still robust at 88%/88% and VIX down 7% over the month despite Hormuz headline risk, confirming rather than just bouncing the uptrend. Greed at 66 and cooling inflation (3.4% CPI) support extending the momentum tilt, so I'm adding 5pp to equities funded from cash. Treasuries and commodities are left unchanged as TLT and DBC show no fresh trend signal worth acting on beyond daily noise.

8. Aug 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 15%Treasuries 25%Equities 40%Commodities 20%

   Breadth remains strong (88% above both 50/200-day averages) and TQQQ jumped 2.11% today as VIX fell 5.5%, confirming the uptrend rather than a mere bounce. Greed at 62 and falling volatility support leaning further into leveraged equities, so I'm adding 5pp to TQQQ funded from cash. Treasuries and commodities stay put since TLT and DBC show no clear trend signal to act on beyond small daily noise (oil geopolitics aside).

9. Aug 10, 2026, 12:29 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 25%Equities 35%Commodities 20%

   Breadth is strong (75% above 50-day, 88% above 200-day) and the Nasdaq/S&P are in confirmed uptrends with greed near 66, supporting a modest lean into TQQQ from the equal-weight start. But TQQQ itself is flat over 1D/1M and VIX ticked up amid Hormuz headline risk, so this is an incremental tilt, not an aggressive one. DBC's 3% pop looks like a single-day commodity spike rather than a trend, so I'm trimming that sleeve slightly rather than chasing it.