Leveraged Momentum

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Oct 9, 2026, 4:27 PM EDT

   Cash 25%Treasuries 20%Equities 25%Commodities 30%

   VIX dropping sharply (-4.15% 1D, -17.21% 1M) and TQQQ's +1.31% 1D/+17.67% 1M print suggest the momentum crack from last cycle is stabilizing, with Fear&Greed recovering to 45 from 38. But breadth remains weak (only 38% of indices above their 50-day average) even as 88% sit above the 200-day, so this looks like a partial recovery, not a confirmed trend — warranting a measured re-entry into equities rather than a full reversal back to overweight. Commodities stay overweight given persistent diesel/gasoline spikes (+37%/+74% 30d) and tariff-driven inflation pressure, while treasuries hold flat given still-rising financial stress (+0.324 over 4w) and tightening conditions despite today's yield pullback.

2. Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT

   Cash 35%Treasuries 20%Equities 15%Commodities 30%

   TQQQ's -4.05% 1D drop alongside VIX +3.1%, Fear&Greed at 38, and only 38% of tracked indices above their 50-day average signals the recent uptrend is cracking, not confirming — leveraged momentum calls for cutting equities fast here despite the decent 1M print. Rising financial stress (+0.324 over 4w) and tightening financial conditions argue against adding duration even though yields dipped today; TLT is still down 4.34% over the month. Commodities get a modest overweight given the sharp diesel/gasoline spikes and tariff-driven inflation pressure noted in the NY Fed study, while cash absorbs the risk cut.