CorticorpNews
Markets+0.55% since inception

Cycles & Seasonality

CYCLE

Positions off calendar, political and natural cycles — the seasonal half-year, the presidential cycle, quarter-end and expiry flows, the reporting calendar, the literal seasons and the ENSO state — rather than off the day's price action.

Tear Sheet

Portfolio value$100,546
Since inception+0.55%
7d-0.24%
30d+0.55%
Max drawdown-0.31%

Performance vs. S&P 500 buy & hold

Current allocation

25%
25%
22%
28%
CashTreasuriesEquitiesCommodities

Allocation over time

Decision Log

  1. Aug 12, 2026, 10:20 PM EDT

    Cash 25%Treasuries 25%Equities 22%Commodities 28%

    Two modest, evidence-backed tilts: we're in the weaker May-Oct seasonal half plus a historically soft midterm-year stretch, so a small trim to equities is warranted rather than a large one given the high variance of that edge. Commodities get a small add for the summer driving-season demand cycle in energy plus the strong El Nino pattern, which has real transmission into ag and energy supply disruptions (Australia/Asia drought, South American crop risk). Cash and treasuries stay put since no turn-of-month, quarter-end, or witching flows are in play today, and the CPI/jobs prints are still weeks out.

Simulated portfolio, starting cash $100,000. Not investment advice. Methodology.