Momentum Chase

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 21, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 7%Treasuries 14%Equities 56%Commodities 23%

   Equities remain the clear momentum leader—S&P +3.59% and Nasdaq +4.15% over the month, breadth strong at 75%/88% above 50/200-day averages, and VIX collapsing -18.98% 1M signals a fading fear regime (Fear & Greed at 55, greed). Treasuries face a fresh headwind as TNX rose again (+0.89% 1D) and TLT slipped -0.35% today, reversing the brief flight-to-quality bid, so we trim further. Commodities hold near current weight given the ongoing ag/energy cost pressures (sugar, cotton, corn all up double digits 30d) but lack a fresh 1D pop to chase harder. Cash stays minimal, funding the equity add.

2. Aug 20, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 8%Treasuries 17%Equities 52%Commodities 23%

   Commodities are today's clear momentum leader (DBC +1.14% 1D vs. broad risk-off tape) and are backed by real physical pressure — sugar +17.9%, corn +10.8%, cotton +10.2% over 30 days plus rising oil/refinery activity — so we add further. Treasuries are trimmed as TNX ticked back up (+0.92% 1D, +0.84% 1M) reversing the flight-to-quality bid that drove last week's TLT pop. Equities are pared slightly given today's broad-based -0.87% to -3.16% global selloff and a VIX spike of +7.25% 1D, even though the 1M S&P trend (+1.90%) remains intact enough to keep the sleeve overweight cash and treasuries. Cash stays flat as the funding role shifts entirely from treasuries into commodities this round.

3. Aug 19, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 8%Treasuries 20%Equities 54%Commodities 18%

   TLT's outsized +1.67% 1D pop and falling TNX (-1.13% 1D) — driven by Treasury doubling debt buybacks and Iran-driven flight-to-quality — mark the strongest emerging momentum signal today, so we add meaningfully to treasuries funded from cash and a trim to equities. Equities remain in an uptrend (S&P +2.65% 1M, breadth 75%/88%) but today's tape is soft on oil/Iran headlines, so we scale back the overweight slightly rather than add further. Commodities hold at 18% — DBC's +0.92% 1D pop is real but lacks a confirmed 1M trend to chase harder. Cash is trimmed further as the residual funding source for the more compelling treasury momentum.

4. Aug 17, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 15%Equities 57%Commodities 18%

   Equities remain the dominant trend (S&P +3.85% 1M, breadth 100%/88% above 50/200-day) despite today's -0.52% wobble, so we hold the overweight. Commodities show the strongest recent pop (DBC +1.87% 1D) alongside a firming oil/geopolitical bid (Hormuz disruption) and rising ag input costs, so we add modestly there. Treasuries stay underweight as TNX is up 4.03% over the month, a persistent headwind for TLT despite today's yield pause. Cash is trimmed further to fund the equity and commodity tilts, continuing the trend-following posture.

5. Aug 14, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 15%Treasuries 15%Equities 55%Commodities 15%

   Equities remain the confirmed momentum leader: broader S&P 1M return of 3.34%, breadth at 88% above both 50- and 200-day averages, VIX down nearly 15% over the month, and Fear & Greed at 65 all point to a persistent risk-on trend, so we extend the equity overweight further. Treasuries stay underweight since the 10Y yield's steady 2.78% 1M rise continues to pressure long-duration TLT despite today's minor bounce attempts (-0.67% 1D). Commodities hold flat at 15%—DBC's +0.74% 1D is encouraging but lacks any confirmed 1M trend to justify chasing it yet. Cash is trimmed slightly to fund the continued equity tilt.

6. Aug 13, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 17%Treasuries 18%Equities 50%Commodities 15%

   Equities remain the clear momentum leader—S&P 500 +2.99% 1M, breadth at 88% above both 50- and 200-day averages, and VIX down 7% signaling continued risk-on conditions—so we add further to the equity overweight. Commodities are the weakest link today (DBC -1.10% 1D) with no trailing strength to justify the current 20% weight, so we trim that sleeve to fund the equity add. Treasuries hold steady: TLT's +0.58% 1D is encouraging but the 10Y yield's +2.11% 1M rise keeps the duration trade unattractive on a trend basis. Cash is trimmed slightly to complete the funding of the equity tilt.

7. Aug 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 18%Treasuries 18%Equities 44%Commodities 20%

   Equities remain the clear momentum leader—S&P 500 +2.72% over 1M with 88% of indices above both 50- and 200-day averages, VIX down 12% signaling fading risk aversion, and Fear & Greed at 62 (greed). Treasuries face a persistent headwind from rising yields (10Y +2.12% 1M) despite today's small TLT uptick, so we trim further. Commodities get a small nod given oil's geopolitical bid (Hormuz tensions) but lack confirmed trailing strength, so we hold rather than add. Cash is trimmed to fund the equity overweight, continuing the trend-following tilt started last rebalance.

8. Aug 10, 2026, 2:16 AM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 22%Equities 38%Commodities 20%

   Equities show the strongest momentum: S&P 500 up 2.84% over 1M with broad participation (88% of indices above 200-day avg) and falling VIX, while commodities lag with flat short-term returns. Treasuries get a modest trim since rising 10Y yields (+2.67% 1M) create headwinds for long-duration TLT despite its positive 1D print. This is a modest first tilt toward the clear equity trend rather than a wholesale bet.