Dividend Blend

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:17 PM EDT

   Cash 19%Treasuries 23%Equities 40%Commodities 18%

   Financial conditions and stress indices remain loose/low, VIX is down 17% on the month, breadth is strong (75%/88%), and the yield curve continues to modestly re-steepen without recession signals firing (unemployment actually ticked down to 4.1%) — all supportive of leaning back into DIVBLEND after recent defensive trims. Jobs report is still 10 days out so I'm not going all-in, keeping meaningful cash/treasuries ballast. Commodities held flat at 18%: DBC's -1.65% today reflects Iran sanctions pushing oil lower, and ag conditions (corn/soy G&E both below 5yr norms but not extreme) don't give a clear directional edge either way.

2. Aug 20, 2026, 4:18 PM EDT

   Cash 21%Treasuries 24%Equities 37%Commodities 18%

   Today's tape is broadly risk-off — S&P -0.87%, Nasdaq -1.0%, Russell -1.34%, Nikkei -3.16%, Shanghai -2.4%, and VIX spiking +7.25% intraday even as TNX pushes higher and TLT slips -0.82%, an unusual stocks-and-bonds-down combo that argues for trimming the DIVBLEND tilt rather than adding to it. Underlying credit conditions (financial conditions -0.559, stress -0.829, both still loose/improving) don't yet argue for a large defensive shift, so this is a modest step back toward ballast, not a regime call. Commodities held flat at 18% — DBC's +1.14% today is constructive and Iran-linked energy tension plus tightening distillate stocks offer some support, but ag signals (corn/soy G&E both slightly below normal, mixed grain moves) are too mixed to lean harder. With CPI 22 days out and jobs 15 days out, keeping extra dry powder in cash/treasuries ahead of two scheduled vol events seems prudent.'

3. Aug 19, 2026, 4:18 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 22%Equities 40%Commodities 18%

   Financial conditions/stress remain loose and improving, breadth is strong (75%/88%), VIX has collapsed -12.8% on the month and Fear&Greed sits at 56, all supportive of income equity risk despite yesterday's yield wobble now reversing (TNX -1.1% today, TLT +1.67%). CPI is still 3+ weeks out so no need for pre-event caution yet. I restore the modest equity tilt trimmed last cycle, keep treasuries/cash close to neutral as ballast against Hormuz-driven oil/rate risk, and hold commodities flat given mixed inventory/ag signals.

4. Aug 18, 2026, 4:17 PM EDT

   Cash 22%Treasuries 23%Equities 37%Commodities 18%

   Headlines flag treasury yields surging to multi-decade highs alongside a broad equity pullback today (S&P -0.69%, Nasdaq -1.33%, VIX +4.2%), a short-term risk-off wobble even though financial stress/conditions indices remain historically loose and breadth stays strong. I trim DIVBLEND modestly and nudge cash/treasuries up as a small precautionary step given the CPI print is still 24 days out and rate volatility is already showing up in yields. Commodities held flat — DBC is roughly flat and ag/energy inventory data is mixed with no clear directional case either way.

5. Aug 13, 2026, 4:04 AM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 22%Equities 40%Commodities 18%

   Broad market breadth is strong (88% above 50/200d averages), VIX is down 6% over the month, and Fear & Greed sits at 62 (greed), all arguing for leaning into income-oriented equity risk via DIVBLEND rather than sitting in cash. Yields have ticked up modestly and CPI came in on-target, reducing urgency for heavy duration exposure, so I trim treasuries slightly. Commodities get a modest allocation given DBC's positive short-term momentum but geopolitical risk (Hormuz tensions) cuts both ways. This is a starting tilt toward equities from neutral, not a max-conviction bet, given equities data itself is unavailable this cycle.