Risk Parity

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:16 PM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 36%Equities 34%Commodities 20%

   Today's ranking still puts Treasuries as the calmest sleeve at 0.77% trailing daily stdev, just a touch above equities at 0.82%, so the two get similar-sized weights (36% and 34%) reflecting their near-equal risk contribution. Commodities remain the clear outlier at 1.42% — nearly double Treasuries' swings — so the formula trims DBC down to 20% to keep it from dominating portfolio risk. Cash holds steady at 10% as the zero-volatility ballast. This continues the recent trend of the treasury/equity volatility gap narrowing while commodities stay the most turbulent sleeve, so the weights shift only modestly from the prior rebalance rather than reflecting any new market view.

2. Aug 19, 2026, 4:17 PM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 39%Equities 34%Commodities 17%

   The formula simply ranked the three risk sleeves by their trailing 20-day volatility: Treasuries stayed calmest at 0.71% daily stdev, equities a bit more turbulent at 0.83%, and commodities by far the most volatile at 1.65% — roughly 2.3x TLT's swings. That inverse-volatility ranking mechanically produces the 39% Treasuries / 34% Equities / 17% Commodities split, with the calmer sleeves earning more room and commodities trimmed hardest so no single sleeve dominates portfolio risk. Cash rounds out the remaining 10% at zero volatility. Versus the prior rebalance, treasury vol ticked up (0.57%→0.71%) and commodity vol eased slightly (1.68%→1.65%), narrowing the gap and shifting a few points from Treasuries toward Equities and Commodities, but the same calm-treasuries/turbulent-commodities regime persists.

3. Aug 10, 2026, 9:59 PM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 45%Equities 30%Commodities 15%

   Today's inverse-volatility formula ranks the three risk sleeves by their trailing 20-day daily stdev: Treasuries at 0.57% (calmest), Equities at 0.86%, and Commodities at 1.68% (most turbulent, roughly 3x TLT's swings). That ordering translates directly into weights — Treasuries get the largest allocation at 45% since low volatility earns more room, Equities take a middle 30%, and Commodities are trimmed to 15% to offset their outsized swings, aiming for each sleeve to contribute similar risk rather than similar dollars. The remaining 10% cash sleeve simply rounds out the portfolio at zero volatility. With VIX up 3.76% on the day and no major cross-asset shocks yet showing up in the trailing windows, this is a straightforward reflection of the current calm-treasuries/volatile-commodities regime rather than any market call.