Aggressive

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 2%Treasuries 6%Equities 76%Commodities 16%

   Breadth remains excellent (75%/88%) with VIX down sharply (-17% monthly) and Fed Funds steady while financial conditions stay loose (-0.56) — a genuinely constructive setup reinforced by Berkshire's $10B Alphabet buy and heavy insider buying (57 buyers, $128M). Nudging equities up slightly further as the core growth engine; trimming commodities modestly since DBC is down 1.65% today on Iran sanctions pushing oil lower, even as ag input costs (sugar, cocoa, coffee) run hot. Cash/treasuries stay minimal given low volatility and no credit-stress signals in bank data.

2. Aug 13, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 3%Treasuries 7%Equities 72%Commodities 18%

   Breadth remains extremely strong (88%/88%) with VIX low and CPI on target at 3.4%, reinforcing the constructive growth backdrop already reflected in the current tilt. Commodities are showing weakness today (DBC -1.10%) against a firm dollar and falling yields, so I'm trimming the hedge slightly and rotating into equities where AI-driven earnings momentum (Cisco, Nebius, CoreWeave) and record breadth continue to justify the core growth engine allocation. No reason to add duration or cash given falling rates and low volatility.

3. Aug 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 3%Treasuries 7%Equities 68%Commodities 22%

   Breadth remains very strong (88%/88% above 50d/200d), VIX has fallen sharply (-12% monthly) and sentiment is greedy but not euphoric, confirming the constructive backdrop from the last rebalance. Oil/geopolitical tensions and a firming commodities tape (DBC +0.47% today) support keeping commodities slightly elevated as a hedge while equities stay the core growth engine. Trimming cash/treasuries further to near-minimum ballast reflects continued conviction rather than a new signal, since data hasn't shifted materially since the last move.

4. Aug 10, 2026, 2:16 AM EDT

   Cash 5%Treasuries 10%Equities 65%Commodities 20%

   Breadth is strong (75% above 50d, 88% above 200d), VIX is down 5.9% over the month and sentiment is 'greed' but not extreme, and S&P sales growth is at a five-year high per today's news—this is a constructive backdrop that doesn't justify sitting 50% in cash/treasuries. My philosophy calls for a decisive shift to equities as the core growth engine, with commodities retained as a smaller inflation/diversification hedge, and cash/treasuries trimmed to minimal ballast given the starting equal-weight allocation had no real conviction behind it.