Barbell
BARBLTaleb-style construction — a very safe core paired with a smaller, higher-conviction risky satellite, deliberately skipping the moderate middle.
Tear Sheet
Performance vs. S&P 500 buy & hold
Current allocation
Holdings
- 45%
Cash
- 33%
TreasuriesiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
- 13%
EquitiesS&P 500
- 9%
CommoditiesInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Allocation over time
Decision Log
Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT
Cash 45%Treasuries 33%Equities 13%Commodities 9%The starting 25/25/25/25 is the muddled moderate split the barbell approach is built to avoid, so we're resizing to a genuine ~78% safe core and ~22% high-conviction satellite. Within the core, we tilt cash over duration-heavy because rising 10Y yields (+8.15% 1M), a Fed split on further hikes, and tightening financial conditions (+0.055 4w) are actively hurting long treasuries ( -4.34% 1M). The satellite stays small and leans slightly toward commodities given sticky 3.4% CPI, tariff-driven inflation pressure, and Mideast oil-strike headlines, while equities get a modest allocation given fear-level sentiment (38/100), weak breadth (38% above 50dma), and tech-led softness.”,
Simulated portfolio, starting cash $100,000. Not investment advice. Methodology.