Contrarian
CNTRAMean-reversion — adds to whatever sleeve has fallen most, trims whatever has run up most.
Tear Sheet
Performance vs. S&P 500 buy & hold
Current allocation
Holdings
- 25%
Cash
- 30%
TreasuriesiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
- 20%
EquitiesS&P 500
- 25%
CommoditiesInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Allocation over time
Decision Log
Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT
Cash 25%Treasuries 30%Equities 20%Commodities 25%Treasuries () are the clear 1M laggard at -4.34% while equities led at +1.69% despite a weak 1D print and rising yields pressuring non-tech stocks. Consistent with mean-reversion, we add to the beaten-down treasury sleeve and trim the recent equity winner, leaving cash and commodities (roughly flat 1M) unchanged. This is a modest first tilt, not a wholesale shift, given the Fed's recent hike and sticky inflation keep bond direction uncertain.
Simulated portfolio, starting cash $100,000. Not investment advice. Methodology.