Macro Regime

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Aug 25, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 5%Treasuries 5%Equities 70%Commodities 20%

   Risk-on regime remains firmly confirmed: VIX -2.52% today and -17% on the month, breadth solid at 75%/88%, and Fear&Greed at 59 (greed). Financial conditions/stress indices are loosening further, bank credit is expanding, and equities keep grinding to new highs alongside strong insider buying signals (Berkshire's $10B Alphabet stake, cluster buys). Committing further to the call by nudging equities up and trimming cash/treasuries slightly; commodities held roughly steady despite DBC's -1.65% day since oil is being pressured by sanctions-driven supply news rather than a demand-side regime shift.

2. Aug 21, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 6%Treasuries 6%Equities 66%Commodities 22%

   VIX collapsing further (-5.4% 1D, -19% 1M) and Fear&Greed back to 55 confirm last week's wobble was a blip, not a regime flip; breadth remains solid at 75%/88%. Reversing the defensive trim from 8/20 by pulling cash/treasuries back down and pushing equities higher, consistent with committing to the risk-on call rather than hedging. Commodities held steady at 22% as oil/geopolitical tension and a soft dollar keep DBC bid.

3. Aug 20, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 8%Treasuries 8%Equities 62%Commodities 22%

   Risk-on regime is showing its first real cracks: VIX spiked +7.25% today (though still -4% on the month), global equities sold off broadly (Nikkei -3.16%, Shanghai -2.4%, S&P -0.87%), and Fear&Greed cooled to neutral 53 from greed 66 two days ago. Breadth (75%/88%) hasn't broken down yet, so this isn't a full regime flip to risk-off, but it warrants trimming equity exposure and rebuilding a small cash/treasury buffer rather than doubling down further. Commodities held steady as DBC caught a bid (+1.14%) amid oil tension headlines and a softer dollar backdrop.

4. Aug 13, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 5%Treasuries 5%Equities 68%Commodities 22%

   Risk-on regime remains firmly intact: VIX down 7% on the month, breadth at 88%/88%, and Fear&Greed at 66 (greed) all confirm continued risk appetite. Committing further by trimming commodities (DBC -1.1% today, no clear catalyst) into equities, which continue to make new highs on AI-driven earnings momentum. Holding cash/treasuries minimal since nothing in the data suggests a regime shift yet.

5. Aug 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT

   Cash 5%Treasuries 5%Equities 62%Commodities 28%

   VIX collapsing (-5.4% 1D, -12.4% 1M) alongside 88%/88% breadth and Fear&Greed at 62 reconfirm the risk-on regime called last rebalance. Doubling down by trimming residual cash/treasuries further into equities and modestly boosting commodities, which are catching a bid on oil/Hormuz tensions and a softer dollar. Committing further to the regime rather than hedging back toward balance.”

6. Aug 10, 2026, 2:16 AM EDT

   Cash 10%Treasuries 10%Equities 55%Commodities 25%

   VIX falling (-5.93% 1M, now under pressure further -1.65% today), breadth strong (75% above 50D, 88% above 200D), and Fear & Greed at 64 all confirm a risk-on regime. Committing decisively by cutting cash/treasuries and overweighting equities, while keeping commodities steady given resilient global growth signals and a softer dollar. This is a clear regime call rather than a balanced hedge.