Macro Regime

Tear Sheet

Decision Log

1. Oct 9, 2026, 4:27 PM EDT

   Cash 20%Treasuries 15%Equities 45%Commodities 20%

   VIX has collapsed -17% over the month and -4% today, Fear & Greed has climbed out of fear into neutral (45 vs 38 last cycle), and breadth above the 200-day (88%) remains robust even though the 50-day reading (38%) is still choppy — that's a risk-on regime reasserting itself after last cycle's defensive shift. Financial stress/conditions ticked up but remain below long-run average levels, not a stress regime. Cutting cash and treasuries (TLT still bleeding -3.08% 1M as yields stay elevated) to fund a decisive move into equities and a modest commodities add, rather than straddling the fence.

2. Oct 8, 2026, 4:48 PM EDT

   Cash 35%Treasuries 20%Equities 30%Commodities 15%

   Breadth has deteriorated sharply (only 38% of indices above 50-day avg vs 63% above 200-day), Fear & Greed sits in fear territory (38), and both the Chicago Fed financial conditions and St. Louis Fed stress indices have swung meaningfully tighter/more-stressed over the past month even though levels remain loose historically. Combined with a re-steepening 10y-2y curve (the historically dangerous post-inversion signal) and fresh geopolitical risk (Iran strike reports), this reads as a regime shift toward risk-off, so I'm cutting equities and building cash. Treasuries get only a modest add rather than a full risk-off overweight since rising yields are actively hammering TLT (-4.34% 1M); commodities stay trimmed given soft breadth in ag/industrial inputs despite oil-driven geopolitical upside risk.